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USDA Ag Outlook Forum’s projections for 2017-18 US crops vs 2016-17. 2017-18 US corn crop 14.065 bln bu vs 15.148 in 2016-17 Corn yld 170.7 bpa vs 174.6 Corn ending stocks 2.215 bln bu vs 2.320 Corn used for ethanol 5.400 bln bu vs 5.350 Corn feed/residual 5.450 bln bu vs 5.600 Corn exports 1.900 bln bu vs 2.225 2017-18 US soybean crop 4.180 bln bu vs 4.307 in 2016-17 Soybean yld 48 bpa vs 52.1 Soybean ending stocks 420 mln bu vs 420 Soybean crush 1.945 bln bu vs 1.930 Soybean exports 2.125 bln bu vs 2.050 2017-18 US wheat crop 1.837 bln bu vs 2.310 in 2016-17 Wheat yld 47.1 bpa vs 52.6 Wheat ending stocks 905 mln bu vs 1.139 bln Wheat exports 975 mln bu vs 1.025 bln bu For details, https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2017_Speeches/Grains_and_Oilseeds_Outlook_2017.pdf At the 8:30 reopening—SH +2 at 1013 ½ (1009 ½-1016 ¼), CH unch at 265 ½, WH -2 at 436, KWH -2, MWH unch, BOH +15 pts, SMH unch
Overnight grain action—Choppy, mixed trade after Thur’s weak tech closes, with the bean complex better, corn steady, wheat easier; initial reaction to above USDA stats so far is muted, with prices hardly moving from the overnight trend; Mar options expire today & next Tues sees 1st notice day/month-end
Outside mkts--$ index, crude, livestock lower; Treasuries, yen, euro, metals higher; softs mixed; US stocks starting lower
Macro mkt news—World shares run into profit taking after heady rally; some risk-off mentality before Pres Trump’s 1st address to Congress next Tues; investors looking for more meat (details) on tax cuts, easing regulatory rules & infrastructure spending; downbeat corporate earnings didn’t help; $ retreats after new US Treasury Secy says he expects policy steps this yr to have only limited impact
US export bookings—Soybeans 15.2 mil bu/corn 29.3, both disappointing; wheat 16.6 mil bu, soymeal 223,000 mt, soyoil 12,700, all in line with guesses
FYI—WSJ—"Commodities Report: Planters Bet the Farm On Soybean Harvest" Cattle-On-Feed report today at 2:00 pm CT; avg trade guess on feed Feb 1 100.7% of ly, Jan placements 111.1%, Jan marketings 109.8%
Argentina’s ag ministry pegs ’16-17 wheat crop at a record 18.3 mmt (USDA 15), corn at 40 mmt (USDA 36.5); trims bean plantings to 19.45 mln/has from 19.8 due to wet weather
US ethanol output -.6% on wk, +4% on yr; stocks +.8% on wk, -2% on yr; margins weakened
Reuters review noting a glut of river barges on the Mississippi due 24% expansion of fleet since ’14; record corn/bean volumes not making up for coal shipments at lowest level in 20 yrs; Feb freight rates -30% vs 5-yr avg
French wheat futures off €.50 at 174.50; prices stable near recent highs but weaker CBT values & rally in euro offer resistance; French wheat crop rated 93% good/excel vs 94% ly
Malaysian palm oil—May up 24 ringgit at 2,804; mkt sees a little short covering ahead of the wkend & there’s talk that export shipments improved this wk Chinese ag futures—Most sharply lower, with soybeans -74 yuan, soymeal-33, palm oil -52, soyoil -40; corn -9 yuan
Through 2018 contracts, CBT corn futures closed 3-5 3/4c lower, soybeans 4-11 1/4c lower, wheat 2 ¼-3 1/4c lower, soyoil 26-41 points lower and soymeal .50-4.50 lower.
Funds sold 13,000 corn, 12,000 soybeans, 3,000 wheat, 6,000 soyoil and 5,500 soymeal.
Preliminary CBT corn volume 422,168, soybeans 386,830, wheat 121,358, soyoil 137,024 and soymeal 126,440.
Preliminary CBT corn open interest -28,285, soybeans -23,381, wheat -2,010, soyoil +5,440 and soymeal -2,145
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