Latest ADMIS News

Global Ag News Headlines for May15

commentary by the ADMIS Ag Research Team

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 5 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 6 in HRW, and up 3 for HRS; Corn is up 7 cents; Soybeans up 12; Soymeal up $4.50, and; Soyoil up 25 points. 

Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 11 yuan in Soybeans, up 5 in Corn, up 13 in Soymeal, up 12 in Soyoil, and up 28 in Palm Oil. 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 14 ringgit at 2,028 (basis July) on stronger export demand estimated by private suveyors. 

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast will see spotty rainfall for the week but a pair of strong and slow moving systems will be entering the region except for the southeast quarter of the Midwest by the weekend and for all areas the first half of next week---temps will be above average in the west with some below average temps next week for the northern Midwest, average to above elsewhere. 

The Southern U.S. Plains remain mostly dry for the rest of the week with a couple of systems bringing rains to the region over the weekend and towards the middle of next week---temps will be running average to a bit below average. 

The Northern U.S. Plains look to be dry through Thursday; rains return heading into the weekend with an additional rain event early next week---temps will be running below average. 

The U.S. Delta and the Southeast will see a drying trend during the next two weeks with only one round of organized rain expected through at least the next ten days.

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 58 lot; Soyoil 36; Rice 62; Corn 112; HRW Wheat 5; Oats 2; Soybeans 156, and; SRW Wheat 131. 

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 45,000 Corn; bought 22,000 contracts of Soybeans; net bought 10,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 5,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 78,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 274,000 Corn; net short 165,000 contracts of Soybeans; short 34,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 68,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,900 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,500; Corn down 5,300; Soybeans down 5,500 contracts; Soymeal down 3,500 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,000 lots. 

There were changes in registrations (Oats up 2; Corn down 20; Soybeans down 69; Soymeal down 3; Rice up 11; HRW Wheat up 3)---Registrations total 251 contracts for SRW Wheat; 2 Oats; Corn 1,130; Soybeans 969; Soyoil 3,547 lots; Soymeal 59; Rice 663; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 571 contracts. 


 In tender activity---Jordan passed on 120,000t wheat---Tunisia seeks 75,000t optional-origin wheat---

Iraq bought 600,000t wheat from local farmers--- 

China's Foreign Ministry said the United States was defining the two countries' dispute over trade as a trade war, and China was only taking action in self-defense

---U.S. President Donald Trump called the trade war with China "a little squabble" and insisted talks had not collapsed; Trump, who has railed against what he describes as China's unfair trade practices and threatened to impose punitive levies on all its imports, softened his tone in a series of remarks expressing optimism about reaching a trade deal with Beijing 

The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT today

---NOPA April U.S. soy crush seen at 161.607 mln bushels
---crush forecasts for March ranged from 157.893 million to 164.000 million bushels
---in March, the NOPA crush totaled 170.011 million bushels 

Soyoil supplies at the end of April were expected at 1.779 billion pounds
---ranged from 1.621 billion to 1.877 billion lbs
---up from 1.761 billion pounds at the end of March
---stocks at the end of April 2018 stood at 2.092 billion pounds 

U.S. Weekly Deliverable Stocks of

---SRW Wheat totaled 37.9 mil bu versus 39.6 mil last week and 61.9 mil a year ago
---HRW 92.3 mil (93.3 last week, 102.9 mil a year ago)
---HRS 14.1 mil bu (14.3 mil a week ago, 18.6 mil last year)
---Corn totaled 4.6 mil bu (3.8 mil last week, 5.4 mil a year ago)
---Soybeans totaled 16.6 mil bu (15.6 mil last week, 14.3 mil a year ago)

Planting delays, depressed prices and heightened uncertainty over the US-China trade war has many farmers thinking seriously about utilizing the prevented planting provisions in their crop insurance policies; final planting dates extend as late as June 5. 

Escalating US-China trade tensions combined with last year's outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) and availability of South American oilseeds will likely erode Chinese demand for US soybeans in 2019, according to Fitch Ratings; farmer profitability will be negatively affected and commodity price volatility will increase

---However, large US agricultural processors' credit risk should be limited in the near term due to diversified assets, global footprints and well-established risk management practices helping mitigate the negative short-term effects on certain segments 

China will begin an auction of corn from state reserves on May 23, the National Grain Trade Center said; a total of 4 million tons of corn will be offered for sale 

China's sow herd fell by 22.3% in April compared with the same month a year ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said; the overall pig herd fell by 20.8% from a year earlier, the ministry said; it does not give total herd figures. 

JBS SA, the world's largest meatpacker, is poised to reap the benefits from additional demand after an outbreak of African swine fever in China reduced pork output; in the first four months of the year, its Australian unit's beef sales to China soared by 80%; in Brazil, we are already seeing a rise in pork exports, both in terms of volume and price; executive said they expect sales of all proteins, not just pork, to increase due to the deadly hog virus.

---Credit Suisse upgrades Tyson Foods to outperform from neutral because it doesn't think the market is fully appreciating the impact of the African Swine Fever outbreak on global meat supplies over the next two years; no supply-shock event in recent history can compare to this one in terms of magnitude, it says as it cites the dramatic contraction in China's pig herd

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicts that grain harvest in Ukraine in 2019 will be 65.3 million tons, which is 5.6% lower than in 2018

---forecasts an increase in wheat production in Ukraine in 2019 by 7.7%, to 26.5 million ton

---wheat exports in 2019/20 ag year (July-June) will decrease 0.3% versus a year ago to 17 mt

---a decrease in corn production by 19%, to 29 million tons

---corn exports down by 1.2% to 21 mt 

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday raised its estimate of 2018/19 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union to 9.75 mt from 9.7 mt last month

---In monthly supply and demand forecasts for cereals, FranceAgriMer cut its estimate of 2018/19 French soft wheat ending stocks to 2.3 from 2.4 mln t

---For maize, it raised its estimate of 2018/19 ending stocks to 2.7 mln t from 2.6 mln t, mainly due to a projected rise in imports 

Australia will import its first shipment of wheat in more than a decade as drought wilts supply in the world's fourth largest exporter of the staple grain; the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources approved the import permit of wheat from Canada, with the shipment expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks where it will be subject to strict biosecurity conditions.  

India's palm oil imports in April fell 9.2% from a year ago to the lowest level in five months, a leading trade body said; the country imported 707,450 tons of palm oil in April, down from 778,884 tons in the same month a year ago; the country's vegetable oil imports in the month fell 11% to 1.2 million tons. 

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May. 1-15 rose 4.0 percent to 773,917 tons from 744,188 tons shipped during Apr. 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said

---Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May 1 - 15 rose 15.0 percent to 786,576 tons from 684,190 tons shipped during April 1 - 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said

---Malaysia's palm oil exports during the May 1-15 period are estimated up 14.4% on month at 785,367 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said