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Global Ag News Headlines Feb 12

by ADMIS Research Team

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 1 cent, HRW down 2, HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 1 cent, Soybeans up 1, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil up 20 points. 

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 14 yuan in Soybeans, unchanged in Corn, down 3 in Soymeal, down 98 in Soyoil, and down 140 in Palm Oil. 

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was up 14 ringgit at 2,709 (basis April) on ideas of tighter supplies 

Overnight grain and soybean futures are quietly lower. USDA WOB suggested China soybean imports will increase, Brazil soybean crop will also increase. USDA also suggested US soybean and wheat exports will go up but corn will drop. This all would be a little negative if this is all China buys from US under the new Phase 1 trade deal. 

US Fed said US economy is still growing but are watching impact coronavirus will have on trade and demand.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil has rains continuing over the next 6 to 10 days for most of the growing regions with things turning drier early next week. 

The Argentine weather forecast is going to be mostly drier for the remainder of the week with rains returning the beginning of next week. 

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 10,000 Corn; were net even in Soybeans; net sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil. 

We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 70,000 Corn; net short 80,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 62,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net long 66,000 Soyoil.  

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,100 contracts; HRW Wheat down 6,900; Corn up 8,300; Soybeans down 2,000 contracts; Soymeal up 1,800 lots, and; Soyoil down 8,200. 

There were no changes in registrations---Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 58; Soybeans 131; Soyoil 2,793 lots; Soymeal 1,714; Rice 565; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 788 contracts. 


In tender activity---Japan seeks 110,500t optional-origin wheat---Egypt bought 360,000t Romanian, Russian wheat---Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat---S. Korean feed groups bought around 261,000t optional-origin corn---Algeria seeks 35,000t optional-origin corn---S. Korea bought 60,000t optional-origin soymeal--- 

U.S. soybean supplies will be smaller than previously expected due to rising export demand from China, the government said; in its monthly supply and demand report, the U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) pegged domestic 2019/20 soybean ending stocks at 425 million bushels, down from its January forecast for 475 million bushels; the change stemmed from a 50 million bushel bump to its export forecast, which the USDA said reflected rising demand from China; it left its corn ending stocks view unchanged at 1.892 billion bushels. 

The coronavirus outbreak in China could reduce Chinese purchases of American agricultural products this year under the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal, White House national security adviser Robert O'Brien said; we expect the Phase 1 deal will allow China to import more food and open those markets to American farmers, but certainly as we watch this coronavirus outbreak unfold in China it could have an impact on how big, at least in this current year, the purchases are 

Soybean prices would be notably affected by China's novel coronavirus outbreak through 1H, as prices are expected to rise near term and then decline after a time lag, Bocom International says; since soybeans are planted in April and June, the outbreak will disrupt the spring planting, leading to supply shortages and price hikes; however, the production suppression may motivate farmers to plant more soybeans in the summer, and the rise in capacity would in turn weigh on prices after the outbreak eases; in the longer run, soybean prices would likely remain weak due to loose supply globally and tepid demand amid the African swine fever 

China's pork prices are hovering near last year's record after measures to battle a coronavirus epidemic hit transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, crimping already tight supplies of the meat. 

Brazilian domestic corn prices have surpassed 50 reais ($11.59) per 60-kilo bag for the first time since 2016 even as farmers harvested a record crop last year; Brazil's corn production surpassed 100 million tons in 2019, setting a new record, but strong demand from local meatpackers and corn-ethanol producers depleted stocks; carryover corn stocks at the end of January were about 11 million tons, the lowest since 2017 when a severe drought pressured Brazilian reserves of the cereal; the corn futures curve is inverted; the March 2020 corn contract is at 50 reais per bag compared with 42-43 reais for July 2020 and September 2020 contracts, which are normally used to set prices of Brazil's so-called second corn crop. 

Russian farmers will start their 2020 spring grain sowing campaign earlier than usual because of warm winter in the country, the agriculture ministry said; due to warm winter, some farmers in Russia's Southern and North-Caucasus districts plan to enter fields in the next few days; Russian farmers plan to sow spring grains on 29.2 million hectares this year, down 181,000 hectares from a year ago; in autumn, Russian farmers sowed 18.3 million hectares with winter grains, up 865,000 hectares year on year; 94% of winter grain sowings are in good or satisfactory condition, which is better than the average over recent years. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) keeps the forecast for Kazakhstan's wheat production for this marketing year (July 2019 - June 2020) at 11.5 million tons, according to the USDA February report; the forecast for wheat exports by Kazakhstan was revised upward from 5.2 to 6 million tons (up 420% from the January forecast) and imports from 130,000 to 300,000 tons (up 130%); the ending stocks of wheat are now expected to stand at 1.08 million tons as at July 1, 2020 compared with the previous outlook of 1.51 million tons. 

Farm office FranceAgriMer increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season to 12.6 million tons from 12.4 million seen in January; that marked the fifth month in a row that the office has increased its non-EU wheat export forecast; FranceAgriMer left nearly unchanged its estimate of soft wheat stocks at the end of the season, at 2.4 million tons 

National Australia Bank expects Australian wheat production in 2019-2020 to come in below the government's already miserable crop forecast and be the lowest since 2007-2008; the bank adds that while prices are below the late 2018 peak, Australia continues to have some of the most expensive wheat in the world; it says prices staying high for the next few months helped by a lower AUD and elevated lot feeding.