Higher Grain Outlook
Grains are mixed. SX is up 1 cent and near 9.69. SMV is near 310.2. BOV is near 33.15. CZ is unchanged and near 3.59. WZ is down 5 cents and near 5.44. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 4.69. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher on EU economic concerns. Crude is lower on demand concerns. POTUS is moving toward decoupling US and China economies. US election is 56 days away.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 26 yuan in soybeans, up 9 in Corn, up 9 in Soymeal, up 106 in Soyoil, and up 66 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 43 ringgit at 2,847 (basis November) at midsession following rival veg oils.
Over the weekend parts of SD, MN, E IA, WI, N IL, N IN and OH saw .75-2.50 inches of rain. Rains should move across the Midwest early this week. Temps are normal to below. Next week should be warmer and drier which should help early corn harvest. Europe, Black Sea and Argentina are dry.
One big market mover this week will be Friday USDA reports. Average trade guess for the corn crop is 14,891 mil bu versus USDA Sep guess of 15,278. Average trade guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 2,461 mil bu versus USDA 2,756. Average trade guess for World 2020/21 corn carryout is 311.1 mmt versus USDA 317.5.
Average trade guess for the soybean crop is 4,292 mil bu versus USDA Sep guess of 4,425. Average guess for US 2020/21 soybean carryout is 469 mil bu versus USDA 610. Average trade guess for World 2020/21 soybean carryout is 93.5 mmt versus USDA 95.4.
Average trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 926 mil bu versus USDA 925. Average trade guess for World 2020/21 wheat carryout is 316.1 mmt versus USDA 316.8.
On Friday, Managed Money were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 15,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; net bought 6,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 19,000 Corn; net long 176,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 79,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.