Global Ag News for Apr 9

TODAY—USDA CROP PRODUCTION, S/D REPORTS—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 3 cents; HRW up 6; HRS Wheat up 3, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans down1; Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil down 40 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 24 cents; HRW up 25; HRS up 41; Corn is up 18 cents; Soybeans up 12 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil up 55 points. Crushing margins are down 6 cents at $0.58 (July); Oil share unchanged at 38%.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 48 yuan in soybeans, up 6 in Corn, up 17 in Soymeal, down 106 in Soyoil, and down 134 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 73 ringgit at 3,864 (basis June) at midsession supported by prospects of good demand, tight supplies.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run was notably wetter again in the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region for the April 16 – 18 timeframe.

South America Weather Forecast: In Brazil, last evening’s GFS model run was wetter in a large portion of the region April 16 – 20. The rainfall will support interior southern and center south areas that have recently dried down. Resulting rainfall is still not expected to fully restore soil moisture. Argentina’s conditions will still be good for late maturing summer crops.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 35,000 contracts of Corn; net bought 4,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 466,000 Corn; net long 175,000 Soybeans; long 66,000t Soymeal, and; net long 95,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 9,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,200; Corn up 4,600; Soybeans up 2,900 contracts; Soymeal down 1,100 lots, and; Soyoil up 3,200.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,118 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 235.

Tender Activity—Tunisia bought 75,000t optional-origin wheat—Egypt seeks 3,000t optional-origin soyoil, 2,000t sunoil–

For the week ended April 1^st—

U.S All Wheat sales are up 1%, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase

By class, HRW wheat sales down 9%, shipments down 6%, with USDA down 7%

SRW down 24%, shipments down 28% (USDA down 18%)

HRS up 3%, shipments up 6% (USDA up 6%)

Corn up 97%, shipments up 84% (USDA up 46%)

Sorghum up 110%, shipments up 180% (USDA up 45%)

Soybeans up 63%, shipments up 73% (USDA up 34%)

Soymeal up 1%, shipments up 8% (USDA up 1%)

Soyoil down 29%, shipments down 13% (USDA down 8%)

2020/21 U.S. corn exports may exceed 70 mmt amid all-time high shipments and massive sales in March – Refinitiv Commodities Research

—Record fast export pace, massive sales, and current U.S. corn inventory indicate that 2020/21 U.S. corn exports may exceed 70 million tons (mmt), well above USDA’s March projection of 66.04 mmt.

China’s agriculture ministry significantly raised its forecast for 2020/21 corn imports on Friday, reflecting actual market demand for the grain due to a spike in the crop’s domestic prices during the year. China is expected to import 22 million tonnes of corn in 2020/21 year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said, doubling its forecast from 10 million tonnes announced last month. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has already projected that China’s corn imports in 2020/21 marketing year would reach 24 million tonnes.

The ministry also raised its forecast for edible oil output in the 2020/21 marketing year, to 28.49 million tonnes, up 1.26 million tonnes from its previous estimate, as more rapeseed cargoes from countries including Russia were expected to come in, according to the statement. China was projected to bring in 9.33 million tonnes of edible oil, up 880,000 tonnes from last month’s forecast, mainly because commercial stocks in the country were at historically low levels and demand for imports was strong.

Argentine farmers are shrugging off high soy prices and hanging onto all the beans they can this season in a bid to avoid exposure to the country’s anemic peso currency, even as rival growers in Brazil and the United States rush to sell. The trend hits just as Argentina needs export revenue to help dig itself out of recession while COVID-19 cases spike and uncertainty abounds ahead of October congressional elections. Farmers fret that the vote might set the stage for increased government intervention in the agricultural markets. The official peso rate has meanwhile swooned 29.6% in the 12 months through Thursday to 92.4 per dollar. With this kind of currency volatility, Argentine farmers have decided a bean in the bag is better than a peso in the bank.

Argentina’s 2020/21 soy crop is expected at 43 million tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, citing lower-than-expected yields caused by dry weather earlier this year as the reason for cutting its previous 44 million-tonne estimate.

Argentine farmers have so far harvested 3.5% of the area they planted with soy this season, the exchange said. The average yield nationwide was 3.1 tonnes per hectare, it said.

The Buenos Aires exchange kept its 2020/21 corn crop estimate unchanged at 45 million tonnes. It said 12% of Argentine corn area had been harvested so far.

Escalating tensions on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia has not affected domestic grain exports and prices, traders said, adding that they are closely monitoring the situation in a region provides a significant part of the world’s food needs.

Euronext wheat rose on Thursday, spurred by a rally in U.S. futures linked to dry weather risks for spring wheat sowing in North America and continued strength in corn prices. Euronext’s May milling wheat settled up 4.50 euros, or 2.2%, at 211.75 euros ($252.49) a tonne. The front-month contract was recovering from a 2021 low of 204.00 euros on Wednesday.

Wire story report from India claims poultry prices up by more than 50% in a year as animal feed drives up costs. A sharp increase in soya meal cost has driven up poultry prices by more than 50% over the past one year. While the price of the key ingredient in poultry feed has increased 82% in a year, the jump has been sharper in the past one month, when it has risen 28%. Poultry has become costlier by 32% in a month. High-protein soya meal is now selling at Rs 67 per kg, compared with around Rs 52 at the beginning of March. Soymeal has a 30% share in the feed composition. In March last year, soymeal was trading at Rs 30 a kg in the Indore market. Soybean trade executives said speculators were at work, hiking prices artificially.