Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 10 cents and near 14.38. SU is down 15 cents and near 13.41. SX is down 17 cents and near 13.26. SMU is near 380.0. BOU is near 57.29. CN is down 14 cents and near 6.59. CU is down 14 cents and near 5.74. CZ is down 12 cents and near 5.60. WU is down 6 cents and near 6.59. KWU is down 8 cents and near 6.11. MWU is unch and near 7.67.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold is sharply lower. Financial, currency and metal markets still reacting to hawkish Fed comments.
There is talk that China ordered traders to liquidate commodity futures positions esp metals .
On again off again GFS model for next week is whipping the market around. EU model dry. This weeks warm/dry Midwest weather suggest lower Mondays USDA corn and soybean ratings.
Weekly US new crop soybean export sales est near 100-300 mt, corn 100-500 and wheat 200-500. Weekly US ethanol data negative with production down, stocks up. Rin vales down 40 pct.
No word on new China buying new crop soybeans. US fob $560 vs Argentina $523. Soymeal prices continue to slide lower on lower demand. US fob $426 vs Argentina $409. China Dalian grain and oilseed futures lower following US lower trade. India revers import tax news.
Argentina corn near $241 fob vs US 296. Ukraine 288. Ukraine seeing normal rains. S Russia , Kazakhstan, Volga basin could see hot/dry sukhovey late this week and early next week.
There is talk of record US HRW feeding in west crop area. No new export demand. SRW ratings high. Could see historic drop in US HRS, PNW white wheat and US Durum 2021 crop size. US HRW fob prices near $279, Baltic $269, German $271, Russia $255, French $257.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 1,000 SRW Wheat and 4,000 soymeal and sold 2,000 corn; 11,000 soybeans; and 15,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 19,000 SRW wheat; long 265,000 corn, 115,000 soybeans, 3,000 soymeal and 58,000 soyoil.
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