Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Juneteenth. Grains are higher. Crazy markets continued overnight. SN is up 57 cents and near 13.87. SU is up 37 cents and near 12.96. SX is 33 cents and near 12.88. SMU is near 368.6. BOU is near 55.99 up 2.43 . CN is up 9 cents and near 6.42. CU is up 13 cents and near 5.61. CZ is up 14 cents and near 5.47. WU is up 15 cents and near 6.59. KWU is up 16 cents and near 6.10. MWU is up 14 cents and near 7.71.
US stocks are slightly higher. Worst week losses since January. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is marginally lower. Gold is higher. Commodities dropped on hawkish Fed comments and China liquidating commodity positions.
On again off again GFS model for next 2 weeks is whipping the market around. EU model still dry. This week’s warm/dry Midwest weather suggest lower Mondays USDA corn and soybean ratings. Weather channel est that over next 10 days, Fargo see 2 rains, Sun/Thur, Omaha next Sat, Des Moines Sun/Thur, Marshall, MN Mon/Tue and next weekend, Indianapolis this weekend and next weekend, Nashville Mon/Tue and next weekend. Not enough rain in west and north plains for the selloff.
There is some talk China may be asking for US soybean prices. US fob $516 vs Argentina $481. Soymeal prices continue to slide lower on lower demand. US fob $407 vs Argentina $392. China Dalian grain and oilseed futures lower following US lower trade. Argentina corn near $225 fob vs US $280. Ukraine $278. Ukraine seeing normal rains.
USDA est Brazil July-Sep corn exports at 14 mmt (550 mil bu). There is talk of no corn at ports.
S Russia , Kazakhstan, Volga basin could see hot/dry sukhovey late this week and early next week.
Could still see historic drop in US HRS, PNW white wheat and US Durum 2021 crop size. US HRW fob prices near $271, Baltic $261, German $267, Russia $250, French $249.
On nasty Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 15,000 SRW Wheat; 30,000 corn; 30,000 soybeans; 12,000 soymeal and 15,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 34,000 SRW wheat; long 235,000 corn, 85,000 soybeans, short 9,000 soymeal and long 43,000 soyoil.
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