Written Commentary
GOLD / SILVER
The December gold contract has definitively rejected the spike low from Wednesday and has clawed back above the 200-day moving average and the $1800 pivot point in this morning’s action. Overnight Chinese gold premiums softened considerably relative to last week while Indian gold pricing was showing a minor premium build relative to last week’s discount. While the trade has already chattered about positive gold sales through Diwali, the bull camp will need to see estimates with specific data to benefit from a good sales Festival.
PALLADIUM / PLATINUM
We see the path of least resistance pointing down in palladium with fundamental demand stories lacking and charts leaning in favor of the bear camp. In a long-term negative, the Russian Federation has announced a project that could take advantage of what is thought to be the largest palladium and platinum deposits on the European continent. Like the palladium market, we see platinum continuing to coil especially with open interest continuing to slump toward the lowest levels of 2021.
COPPER
While we suspect that today’s US nonfarm payroll report will have a noted impact on copper prices, traders should not lose sight of the reality that the ebb and flow of Chinese economic expectations is the real driving force for copper prices. Overnight Bloomberg reported that copper premiums in China jumped to four-year highs as Chinese power problems have resulted in increased crude, coal, and copper imports.
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