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Coffee Supply Fundamentals Turn Up

COCOA

Cocoa prices have been able to regain upside momentum this week and posted their first close above their 50-day moving average since mid-October. As long as global risk sentiment remains positive, cocoa can extend this rebound into the new trading year.

COFFEE

Coffee has trouble sustaining upside momentum since its late November rally, but the market continues to find its footing above the 50-day moving average. Although the market remains vulnerable to profit-taking and additional long liquidation over the next 1 1/2 weeks, coffee should be fairly well supported on near-term pullbacks.

COTTON

March cotton closed higher yesterday after trading through Monday’s high and after trading to its highest level since November 26. The dollar ended lower and looks weak on the charts, which is supportive to export commodities like cotton. The stock market was firmer as well, as it seems like traders are willing to believe that we can avoid heavy lockdowns from Omicron.

SUGAR

Sugar prices have been unable to shake off a coiling pattern since mid-November, but continue to hold their ground above the early December lows. Crude oil and RBOB gasoline prices continued to gain further ground this week, which was a source of carryover support to the sugar market as that can help to shore up ethanol demand in both Brazil and India.

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