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Tightening Coffee Supply Fundamentals Ahead

COCOA

If and when the potential for fresh COVID restrictions is sharply reduced, cocoa should see a significant upside move. Global risk sentiment took a negative shift over the weekend following reports of new lockdown measures in China, which pressured the cocoa market as that news is likely to diminish Asian near-term demand prospects.

COFFEE

Coffee has had two sharp daily gains (last Tuesday and Monday) that were followed by moderate pullbacks as the market continues to hold its ground above the 50-day moving average. Near-term bearish factors are fueling choppy price action, but coffee’s bullish longer-term supply/demand outlook should help it to remain well supported.

COTTON

March cotton closed slightly higher on Monday after spending the session inside Friday’s range. The dollar was slightly higher and the stock market slightly weaker. Both moves were slightly bearish for cotton. The trade seems reluctant to push the market in either direction ahead of Wednesday’s USDA supply/demand report.

SUGAR

Sugar has only had one positive daily result so far this year (a minimal 1 tick gain on January 4th) as market focus has shifted to nations where cane harvesting is underway. The market has fallen back into price levels last seen in mid-July, which makes sugar increasingly undervalued given this season’s supply/demand outlook.

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