Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 5 cents and near 13.96. SMH is near 400.2. BOH is near 60.89. 64.00 resistance? CH is down 1 cent and near 6.09. 6.17 resistance? WH is down 3 cents and near 7.82. KWH is down 2 cents and near 7.97. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.40.
US financial and energy markets may be pausing to refresh. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is mixed. Gold, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower.
Dalian soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, rapeseed oil, palmoil and corn are all higher. China lowering rates. Palmoil higher on talk Indonesia will increase biodiesel use and could reduce exports.
US weekly export sales delayed until Friday. Trade watching corn and soybean sales pace.
Argentina forecast is wet. Paraguay, S Brazil, Argentina 6-10 day is dry. US South plains dry. Parana early soybean yields only 5-15 bpa. MG yields record. N Brazil lower. Too wet?
USDA estimated SA soybean crop at 194 mmt down record 9.5 for Jan. Could be 14 mmt lower. Rumors China buying new crop US SB. China meal stocks low. US cash crush margins +2.40. SH testing 14.00, SMH back near $400, BOH above 60. Overnight highest since Oct 2021. Matif and Canada RSO and canola prices higher. EU watching Russia Ukraine tension.
Matif corn higher. EU needs corn. USDA est SA crop 169 mmt vs 137 ly. Could be 10-12 lower. CH over 6.00 and highest close in 2022. Talk of higher US corn demand supportive. There were rumors China looking to buy 1.5 mmt new crop US corn before Phase 2 deal. Some could see US 21/22 corn carryout near 1,195 vs USDA 1,540. Exports 2,680. USDA 2,425.
US HRW wheat weather drier than normal could extend into spring. EU/Russia weather normal. Some feel 5 year KC wheat futures rally could extend next 12-18 months. Russia/Ukraine key. Ukraine and Russia tension higher. US Sec of State to Ukraine. UK sending support to Ukraine. Est US 2021/22 wheat carryout 585-700. Matif wheat futures higher on new demand. Trade est US 2022 corn acres 91.5 vs 93.4 ly, soybeans 89.0 vs 87.2 and wheat 49.0 vs 46.7.
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