Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended lower but off session lows. Good rains across key areas of Argentina and forecast of needed rains in south Brazil weighed on soybean futures. Increase tension between Russia and Ukraine has US equities lower, US Dollar higher and most commodities lower. Weekly US soybean exports were near 47 mil bu vs 77 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,276 mil bu vs 1,674 ly. Talk that losses in South America could be close 1,100 mil bu should be bullish soybean futures. USDA estimates SA 2022 crop production near 7,120 n mil bu. USDA estimates World 2021/22 soybean trade near 6,265 mil bu, Brazil 3,420 and US 2,050. China imports are estimated near 3,670 mil bu. Some lowered US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 310 mil bu vs USDA 350 due to higher crush demand.
CORN
March corn futures ended higher. Some feel this was an impressive day for corn futures ending higher despite good rains in Argentina and forecast for rains in South Brazil. CH ended near session highs and 6.21. Next resistance is near 6.33 then 6.40. Increase tension between Russia and Ukraine has US equities sharply lower, US Dollar higher and most commodities lower. USDA est that Ukraine is Worlds 4th highest corn exporter. Ukraine exports are estimated near 1,315 mil bu. Weekly US corn exports were near 44 mil bu vs 55 last year. Season to date exports are near 647 mil bu vs 744. Talk that losses in South America could be close 700 mil bu should be bullish corn futures. USDA estimates Brazil and Argentina 2022 corn production near 6,640 mil bu and their exports near 3,220 mil bu. USDA estimates global corn trade near 8,000 mil bu. US is 2,425. Some now estimate US corn exports could reach 2,680 mil bu due to lower SA supply. USDA estimates total US corn demand near 14,835 mil bu of which 5,325 mil bu ethanol and 5,650 mil bu. Total demand could be EU corn futures were higher in concern that any reduction in Ukraine corn exports to EU could tighten supplies and push prices higher.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded higher. Increase tension between Russia and Ukraine has US equities sharply lower, US Dollar higher, most commodities lower but wheat higher. USDA est that Russia and Ukraine are Worlds 2nd and 3rd highest wheat exporter. USDA estimates World wheat trade near 7,485 mil bu, Russia exports 1,285, Ukraine 890 and EU 1,375. Weekly US wheat exports were near 14 mil bu vs 21 last year. Season to date exports are near 485 mil bu vs 593 ly. USDA goal is 825 mil bu. Some are as low as775 mil bu. Some estimate US 2022 wheat crop at 2,050 mil bu vs 1,646 last year. Total demand is estimated near 1,940 mil bu. This suggest a US 2022/23 wheat carryout near 940 mil bu. Ukraine and Russia tension and US 2022 weather is key to prices. WH is near 8.01. WH range was 7.75-8.02. Next resistance is 8.24. KWH is near 8.18. KWH range was 7.94-8.19. Next resistance is 8.44.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
