Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 10 cents and near 14.58. New contract high. SMH is near 408.3. BOH is near 65.05. New contract high. CH is up 4 cents and near 6.29. WH is up 9 cents and near 7.86. KWH is up 9 cents and near 8.02. MWH is up 5 cents and near 9.07.
US stocks are choppy and now lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee and cotton are lower.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, palmoil are higher. Corn lower. China starting its New Year. Paraguay, S Brazil, N Argentina warm and dry. Rain in N and C Brazil. La Nina returns Feb-March.
It appears that any Russian invasion of Ukraine is on hold. World shipowners invoke war clause. World is awaiting Russia next step. No action expected until after China Winter Olympics.
Weekly US soybean export sales were 1,025 mt. Commit 44.1 vs 57.7. Demand trending higher. Brazil soybean crop below 130 mmt? MGDS soybean crop 33 G/E vs 91 in Dec. Argentina soybean crop rated 38 pct G/E vs 30 le. Crop could be 40-44 mmt vs USDA 46.5. SH near 14.58. Prices reflect lower SA supplies and possible higher US exports/crush.
South America weather/corn supplies, Black Sea exports, China import margins key to corn. April-May weather key to Brazil 2nd corn crop. Feb-March key to Argentina corn crop. USDA Ag attaché estimates Argentina corn crop 51 mmt vs USDA 54. 32 pct crop G/E vs 22 lw. EU corn stocks 17.3 mmt vs 20.3 last year. Last year Aug EU prices 305 euros vs 257 now. Normal Brazil weather could help Brazil second corn crop. Will Ukraine ship 700 mil bu? CH near 6.29. CH-CK +3 cent. US cash corn basis firm. Barge basis +800. Export demand on rise.
Funds are now net short 13,000 Chicago wheat short. WH down 57 cents in 2 trading days. Most of the wheat drop due to less concern over Black Sea exports and higher US Dollar. US south plains still dry. Forecast is dry. USDA HRW crop ratings down and below last year.
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