Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
May soybean futures ended near 16.35. Soybean futures were supported by higher Malaysian palmoil prices and concern that lower South America supplies could increase demand for US soybeans. There is also concern that a war in Ukraine could also slow Black Seas sunoil exports. Argentina weather looks better over the next 2-3weeks. Some estimate Argentina’s soybean crop near 30 mmt vs USDA 45 and their corn crop at 49 mmt vs USDA 54. CONAB and Private groups are on crop tours accessing Brazil soybean crop. Some estimates are closer to 120 mmt versus USDA 134. Weekly US soybean exports were 35 mil bu vs 29 ly. Season to date exports are near 1,462 vs 1,877 ly. There remains concern that China soybean imports may be less than USDA 97. Next nearby soybean futures resistance is the May,2021 high near 16.77 then the Sep, 2012 high near 17.94. Next nearby soymeal futures resistance is the Jan,2021 high near 474 then then 500 May,2014. Next nearby soyoil futures resistance is the Jan, 2021 high near 73.74.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher and near session highs. Concern about Argentina corn crop and corn exports out of Ukraine raised futures to new highs. Much of todays equity and commodity trade is due to the headlines concerning Russia and Ukraine. Russia Congress has given Putin permission to invade Ukraine and fire missiles into a foreign country. Germany stopped constriction of the Nord steam pipeline 2. UK came out with potential strong sanctions against Russia. One hedge fund was a large buyer overnight in the grains that rallied prices sharply higher. Market may be overbought on the Russian news. Farmers should take advantage of todays price action. Corn is higher in talk of lower South America crops and concern that a war in Ukraine Could slow or stop 16 mmt or 600 mil bu of Ukraine corn exports. Weekly US corn exports were 62 mil bu vs 50 ly. Season to date exports are 852 mil bu vs 952 ly. Corn futures are undervalued if US demand increases and US summer weather is not ideal. Next nearby corn futures resistance is the May,2021 high near 7.75 then the Aug, 2012 high near 8.43.USDA Outlook conference is this week. Most look for USDA to keep US 2022 corn acres near baseline 92.9 vs 93.4 last year. Some could see acres closer to 91.0. Trend yield could be near 181.0 vs last years record 177.0. USDA baseline total demand was est near 14,830 versus some est for 2021/22 near 15,155. Most look for 2022/23 demand closer to 15,035. This gives a 2022/23 US corn carryout range from 1,100 ( Analyst est) to USDA baseline 1,952.
WHEAT
Wheat futures were up on concern about Russia and Ukraine tension. Weekly US wheat exports were 19 mil bu vs 11 ly. Season to date export are 552 mil bu vs 654 ly. Much of todays equity and commodity trade is due to the headlines concerning Russia and Ukraine. Russia Congress has given Putin permission to invade Ukraine and fire missiles into a foreign country. Germany stopped constriction of the Nord steam pipeline 2. UK came out with potential strong sanctions against Russia. WK range was 8.10 to 8.54. WK ended up 48 cents and near 8.52. Next resistance is near 8.63 then 9.00. KWK ended near 8.84 with range 8.50-8.89. Next resistance is 8.87 then 9.47 the 10.00. MWK ended near 9.87. Next resistance is near 10.86. USDA baseline US 2022 acres is 49.0 versus 46.7 last year. Some feel we may not get higher US spring wheat acres due to higher corn and soybean prices. USDA baseline est of 2022/23 wheat carryout near 925 versus some private est of 715. Many feel USDA may be too high in World 2021/22 wheat supply available for export and too low for importers demand especially North Africa.
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