Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded higher but off session highs. SK ended near 16.67 after testing 16.99. SMK ended near 453 after testing 461. BOK ended near 74.81 after testing 77.37. Weekly US soybean export sales were 857 mt old crop and 1,386 mt new crop. Total commit is near 50.1 mmt vs 60.0 last year. USDA goal is 55.8 mmt vs 61.5 last year. Trade still trying to find a price that could slow global demand since South America soybean crop could be down 20 mmt. This week, StoneX estimated Brazil soybean crop at 121 mmt vs USDA 134USDA did announce 132 mt of new US soybean sales to China. There is talk that this week, China has bought 13-16 cargoes of Brazil soybeans, 8-10 mmt Argentina soybeans and 6-8 US soybean cargoes. India Feb sunoil imports were down 54 pct due to lower Ukraine exports. EU grocery markets are limiting consumers the amount of sunoil they can buy.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher but off session high. CK ended near 7.47. CK tested up the daily limit near 7.60. Near that level 22,000 contracts were sold. A lot of question about CK-CN spread near +44. There remains concern about fact Ukraine may not ship 15 mmt or 600 mil of corn as War continues. There is also talk of a short squeeze in the May due to margins calls.
Weekly US corn export sales were only 485 mt. Total commit is near 48.0 mmt vs 59.1 last year. USDA goal is 61.6 mmt vs 69.9 last year. Some could see exports closer to 67.3. USDA did announce 337 mt of new US corn sales to unknown thought to be South Korea.
WHEAT
Weekly US wheat export sales were only 300 mt. Total commit is near 18.3 mmt vs 23.8 last year. USDA goal is 22.0 mmt vs 27.0 last year. Trade still trying to find a price that could slow global demand since Russia may not export 15 mmt wheat and EU may not export 5 mmt. 2 Russian Banks were not sanctioned so they could trade food/grain. Russia trying to trade/export grain from Baltics. New ETF money is now coming into wheat for a long term investment. There is talk of squeeze on the May due to margin calls. At one point 1.0 billion bushels of wheat was wanted limit up in WK. US annually grows only 300 mil bu of SRW. At one point synthetic WK was trading near 12.58. Matif wheat ended near 366 Euros per mt and up 25.5.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
