Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 4 cents and near 16.73. Overnight high was 16.81. SMK is near 461.9. BOK is near 73.28. CK is up 15 cents and near 7.63. Overnight high was 7.72. WK is up 75 cents and near 12.09. Synthetics were trading near 12.58 on Thursday. KWK is up 75 cents and near 12.25. MWK is up 60 cents and near 11.78. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $106. Gold, silver, copper, coffee are higher. Cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil, and soyoil are lower. Corn is higher.
Problems with Ukraine planting 2022 crops; logistics, fuel, seed, fertilizer, spare parts and labor. The Biden administration is considering biofuel waivers to ease food inflation.
For the first time World/US business TV is talking about food inflation especially wheat. WH is near 13.40 and above all time high of 13.34 in 2008. KWK near 12.25 vs 2008 13.84 high. US south plains HRW weather warm and dry. Delta, TN and OH valley wet. Matif wheat up 25 euros. French wheat $430, Baltic $445, Germany $446. US SRW $468. US wheat export commit down 23 pct vs ly. Trade est US carryout 628 mil bu vs USDA 648.
US soybean export commit down 16 pct ly. New crop commit is record high for this week. Argentina rated soybean crop 25 pct G/E and crop 42 mmt versus USDA 45. USDA will need to decide either use CONAB Brazil soybean crop of 125 or trade est of 129.
CK-CN spread +45 and record high. Barge freight higher. Matif corn higher. EU end users beginning to panic due to drop in corn supplies. South Korea feed producers declared force majeure on deliveries due to no Ukraine imports. Dry C Brazil raising corn concern about 2nd corn crop outlook. Crop could be below 110 mmt.
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