Global Ag News for Mar 30.22

TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $0.15; Soyoil up 0.36.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 84 3/4 in SRW, down 81 1/2 in HRW, down 53 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 22 1/2; Soybeans down 65 3/4; Soymeal down $2.34; Soyoil down 2.86. For the month to date wheat prices are up 74 in SRW, up 66 3/4 in HRW, up 50 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 42 3/4; Soybeans up 10 3/4; Soymeal up $21.20; Soyoil down 0.50.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 32% in SRW, up 28% in HRW, up 7% in HRS; Corn is up 23%; Soybeans up 24%; Soymeal up 13%; Soyoil up 28%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 22) Soybeans up 28 yuan; Soymeal down 124; Soyoil down 100; Palm oil down 140; Corn down 21 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 93 ringgit (-1.54%) at 5927.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 15 Corn; 132 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 29 were: SRW Wheat down 2,777 contracts, HRW Wheat down 390, Corn up 6,278, Soybeans down 2,934, Soymeal down 4,193, Soyoil down 2,973.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday, north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Friday, below normal Saturday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Scattered showers leaving Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

The player sheet for 3/29 had funds: net sellers of 15,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 17,500 corn, sellers of 10,000 soybeans, sellers of 9,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil
• WHEAT, FEED BARLEY TENDERS: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 150,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 100,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• CORN SALE UPDATE: Turkish grain board TMO booked about 100,000 tonnes of corn in an international tender for imported supplies on Monday, scaling back an initial volume of 300,000 tonnes
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 40,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Wednesday,

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• SOYOIL TENDER: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes of soyoil
• WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has extended the deadline for the validity of price offers in a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: A buyer in Qatar has issued a tender to buy an estimated 105,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Algerian state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.

Top Soybean Shipper Brazil Sees Slowdown Amid Fertilizer Crisis

• Planted area seen rising just 0.5% in 2022-23, says Itau BBA
• Slowdown in world’s top shipper could mean more food inflation

Fears of a fertilizer shortage are slowing soybean expansion in Brazil, the world’s top exporter, nearly to a halt.

Planted areas of the oilseed are expected to rise just 0.5% in the upcoming 2022-23 season, the slowest growth since 2006, according to a forecast from Itau BBA. A slowdown in the No. 1 producer of the oilseed, which is used to feed a significant portion of the world’s animals raised for meat, could contribute to the food inflation that’s gripping the globe.

Rising production costs and concerns about fertilizer shortages in particular are the source of Brazilian farmers’ hesitation this season, according to Itau BBA analyst Guilherme Bellotti. Russia is Brazil’s main supplier of fertilizers, and the war in Ukraine is leading to fears that crop nutrient shipments will be disrupted. Brazil imports 85% of its fertilizers.

Margins for Brazilian farmers could fall a third to 40% amid soaring costs this year, Bellotti said to journalists Tuesday. “It’s still a good margin,” he said.

The Brazilian harvest could still increase 15% over last year’s to 141 million tons according to preliminary estimates, as fertilizer residues in the soil from past seasons soften the impact of lower applications now, Bellotti said.

Diesel Is Getting Rationed at the Pump in Argentina: Clarin

Argentine gas stations are selling a maximum of 15 liters of diesel per customer, Clarin reports citing Gabriel Bornoroni, head of fuel retailer group Cecha.

Rationing puts the upcoming soybean and corn harvests at risk: Bornoroni

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Fall 3% in Season Through March 27

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 totaled 19.9m tons as of March 27, versus 20.5m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations are Algeria (2.95m tons), Egypt (2.04m tons) and China (2.04m tons)
• EU barley exports at 5.79m tons, versus 6m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 12.1m tons, steady with a year earlier

Ukraine Sees Spring Sowing Area at 5.9 Million Ha, Down 22% Y/Y

Ukraine’s farmers have begun planting of spring crops in 11 out of 24 country’s regions, not counting annexed Crimea, according to a statement from country’s Agriculture Ministry.

• Total area sown so far include:
  • 22,500 ha under wheat
  • 74,800 ha under barley
  • 2,200 ha under sunflowers
  • 2,000 ha under soybeans
• NOTE: Ukraine’s areas under Winter crops totaled 7.7m ha, up 5.5% from 2021

Russian Grain Exporters May Seek Ruble Payments: Kommersant

The Russian Union of Grain Exporters asked the central bank to consider making it possible for foreign buyers of grain to pay in rubles under export contracts, Kommersant reports.

• Initiative was discussed, among other topics, at a meeting with the central bank last week
• Union asked central bank to provide ruble liquidity to foreign banks serving grain buyers, the largest of which are Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia
• While most contracts are now agreed in foreign currency, international sanctions that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine complicated payments in FX because some banks sometimes refuse to transfer money

Sipef Warns For Upward Price Pressure On Indonesian Palm Levy

Sipef says increase of the Indonesian export levy on palm products could lead to an additional upward pressure on gross selling prices, according to an emailed company statement.

• Export tax and levy for crude palm oil for the month of April 2022 should amount to $575 per ton, for a reference palm oil price of $1,787 per ton
• Impact of total increase of the export tax and levy of $200 per ton compared to end Feb. will be mitigated by the abolition of the mandatory minimum supply at a maximum price for local cooking oil which was imposed on refineries end Jan.
• Any regulation also affects the current shortage of vegetable oils on the international market; could result in additional upward pressure on gross selling prices

Indonesia May Start Selling Subsidized Cooking Oil This Week

About 14,000 tons of subsidized cooking oil could be distributed to local markets every day starting this week, according to Sahat Sinaga, executive director of Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association.

• Supply of bulk cooking oil may reach 388,000 kiloliters a month, exceeding the nation’s consumption, Sinaga tells a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday
• Distributors to sell the cooking oil at no more than 13,000 rupiah/liter, while consumers will buy it at 14,000 rupiah–a price cap set by govt

Indonesia to Spend 57.9T Rupiah on Biodiesel Incentives in 2022

Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producing country, allocates as much as 57.9 trillion rupiah for biodiesel incentives this year, according to Eddy Abdurrachman, president director of Indonesia Oil Palm Plantations Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS).

• Funds will be used to cover the gap between diesel price and palm-biodiesel to support the B30 blending mandate, Abdurrachman said in a parliamentary hearing on Wednesday
• Govt targets 10.15m kiloliters of palm-based biodiesel consumption this year
• BPDPKS sees this year’s revenue reaching 68.2t rupiah, mostly from palm oil exports levy collection
• As of Feb., the agency has earned 6.89t rupiah
• Agency to spend about 5.6t rupiah on oil palm plantation replanting program and 8.35t rupiah for cooking oil subsidy

EU 2021/22 soybean imports at 10.15 mln T by March 27, rapeseed 3.90 mln T

European Union soybean imports in the 2021/22 season that started in July had reached 10.15 million tonnes by March 27, compared with 11.04 million tonnes by the same week in 2020/21, data published by the European Commission on Tuesday showed.

EU rapeseed imports so far in 2021/22 had reached 3.90 million tonnes, compared with 5.13 million tonnes a year earlier.

EU soymeal imports so far in 2021/22 were at 12.10 million tonnes against 12.77 million a year ago, while palm oil imports stood at 3.72 million tonnes versus 4.09 million.

EU sunflower oil imports, most of which come from Ukraine, were at 1.46 million tonnes, against 1.36 million a year ago, the data showed.

EU 2021/22 soft wheat exports 19.87 mln T by March 27

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2021/22 season that started in July had reached 19.87 million tonnes by March 27, according to data published on Tuesday by the European Commission.

That compared with 20.48 million tonnes by the same week in 2020/21, the data showed.

EU 2021/22 barley exports had reached 5.79 million tonnes, against 6.01 million a year ago, while EU maize imports were at 12.05 million tonnes, against 12.10 million.

Brazil soy area to grow at the slowest pace in more than 15 years, Itau BBA says

Brazil’s 2022/2023 soybean area will expand by 0.5%, the slowest pace of growth in more than 15 years, as farmers face high costs to convert pastureland into soy plantations, according to agribusiness specialists at investment bank Itau BBA on Tuesday.

Brazil’s soy area grew by 3.8% to 40.7 million hectares (100.5 million acres) in 2021/22, according to government data. Itau BBA projected soybean output in the world’s biggest soy supplier would reach 141 million tonnes in the 2022/2023 season, which will begin in the fourth quarter.

Farmers in Argentina have sold 19.5 mln T of 2021/22 corn – ministry

Argentina’s producers have sold 19.5 million tonnes of corn for the 2021/22 season, the ministry of agriculture said on Tuesday.

The ministry said that 744,000 tonnes of corn were traded between March 16 and 23, exceeding the 454,900 tonnes recorded the same period in the previous season, boosted by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has cut the global supply of the grain.

Argentina is the world’s second largest corn exporter and its farmers are beginning to harvest the 2021/22 grain, whose harvest the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BdeC) estimates at 49 million tonnes.

At the end of last year, the Argentine government set a limit on corn exports for the 2021/22 cycle of 41.6 million tonnes in an attempt to control high domestic food prices.

Regarding 2021/22 soybean, Argentine farmers have sold 11.5 million tonnes of the oilseed, whose harvest will begin in the coming weeks, according to the government. On the same period of the last season, the volume of sales had been 12.8 million tonnes.

The BdeC estimated soybean production for the current season at 42 million tonnes.

Foreign exchange from agricultural exports is critical for Argentina’s battered economy, which in 2021 managed to recover after three years of recession, aggravated by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 12.957 mln T In March – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 12.957 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 12.9 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.537 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 1.845 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 103,278 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 110,000 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 500,164 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 522,164 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

Fertilizer Buyers Pay Up at Record Prices as War Tightens Supply

With the Russia-Ukraine war in its fifth week, urea and phosphate keep climbing in New Orleans (NOLA), Brazil, Europe and the Middle East. Tampa ammonia closed at a record $1,625 a metric ton (mt) for April, up 43% from March. India’s tender program could resume in April at record high urea prices. Potash prices jumped in NOLA and Brazil to almost 2x last month’s Chinese annual contract.

Urea Market Looks to India for Price Direction

A tender from India could move global urea prices higher as the world’s biggest buyer begins its season. Aligned with its budget and crop season, India normally begins tendering in March. The country’s rapid import pace in 2021 supported global urea prices, with India importing 8.1 million metric tons (mmt). The pace slowed in 1Q on limited global supply, suggesting additional unmet demand as prices spiked in 4Q. If India were to begin its tender program in early April, delivered urea prices would likely fall near $1,000-$1,100 per metric ton cost and freight (CFR), exceeding the previous record at $999.

U.S. Wheat ETF Average Volume Up 13x Since Russia’s Invasion

The Teucrium Wheat Fund ETF updated its prospectus with a volatility warning following record inflows, saying the average volume in the 20 days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was almost 13 times higher than before the war began.

• WEAT said one of its two futures commission merchants has imposed a financial ceiling on initial margin that could restrict the fund’s activities
• “If the Fund’s other current FCM were to impose position limits, the Fund’s ability to meet its investment objective could be negatively impacted”
• WEAT said average volume in the 20 days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was 8,273,913, almost 13 times higher than the 20 day average of 639,398 prior to the war starting

EPA Removes Restrictions on Two Corteva Agriscience Herbicides

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency removes geographic restrictions on two herbicides for two listed species, the American Burying Beetle and the Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake.

• The herbicides, Enlist One and Enlist Duo, are the first products to complete the EPA’s new Endangered Species Act protection risk assessment process, Corteva said
• Restrictions affected 134 counties