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Spec Selling Emerges in Cotton

COCOA

While it finished the month and quarter with moderate gains, a negative shift in global risk sentiment could put cocoa prices on the defensive. Global near-term demand remains uncertain, but cocoa has received bullish supply developments that can help the market remain fairly well supported.

COFFEE

technical set-up, the market appears to be in position to turn the trend up. Brazil and Colombia are dealing with production issues due to the current La Nina weather event, and that has underpinned coffee prices. Both nations combined account for more than half of global Arabica output, and their production decline this season will not be offset by larger crops in Central America.

COTTON

May cotton closed sharply lower on the session yesterday and the market remains in an overbought condition. Dry weather for West Texas is still a concern. After a neutral USDA prospective plantings report and a disappointing export sales report, sellers were more active. The USDA Prospective Plantings report put US cotton planted area for 2022 at 12.234 million acres, slightly below the average expectation of 12.3 million (range 11.7-13.0) and below the Outlook Forum estimate of 12.7 million.

SUGAR

While sugar prices have been unable to build onto last week’s recovery move so far this week, they are holding up fairly well in spite of the volatile whipsaw action seen in energy markets. With Brazil’s Center-South cane harvesting and crushing reaching full speed over the next month, sugar should receive fresh bullish supply developments that can help prices climb above the March highs.

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