Written Commentary
GOLD / SILVER
With a fresh contract high in the dollar and a fresh contract high yield in bonds, the outside market impact on gold and silver is negative to start the last trading session of the week. In retrospect, yesterday’s Federal Reserve dialogue was mixed to slightly bearish, with one hawkish Fed member countervailed slightly by a relatively dovish member. Minor supportive outside market influences of higher oil and higher grains looks to have a limited impact on prices. However, there are reports that Russia is preparing for a massive “offensive” and that could increase interest in flight to quality tools like gold and silver.
PALLADIUM / PLATINUM
With a 3-day high overnight putting palladium prices near the top of the last 15 days consolidation, reports of a possible major offensive by Russia (likely to foster more sanctions) and a balanced net spec and fund long positioning, the bull camp has a slight edge today. With a significant new low for the move spike down yesterday, the platinum market extends a bearish chart set up into another trading session.
COPPER
With the May copper contract rejecting 3 spike-down moves in the past 3 weeks, a noted recovery extension this morning, a report of lower central Asian copper production and extremely bullish Goldman Sachs views toward copper prices, we expect copper to claw higher. However, in addition to a series of large inflows to LME copper warehouse stocks this week the LME exchange posted another gain this morning of 2,500 tons.
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