Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 5 cents and near 16.55. SMN is near 456.4. BON is near 73.70. CN is down 4 cents and near 7.68. CZ is near 7.31 and new highs. WK is up 6 cents and near 11.10. WN is near 11.19. KWK is up 7 cents and near 11.69. KWN is near 11.73. MWK is unch and near 11.55. MWN is near 11.56.
US Dollar is making new highs. Crude is higher. Ukraine war continues. Putin said peace talks at dead end. IEA lowered Word 2022 crude oil demand due to China Covid lockdown. US stocks are higher in front of Bank earnings.
US Midwest weather will be a mixture on cool/wet east and cool/dry west. ND and MN blizzard. Dry weather continues in US south plains. Central Brazil is dry. Central Brazil and Argentina are dry.
China Covid lockdown could lower their commodity import demand. SN has found resistance near 16.75. BON has found resistance near 75.Soyoil as pct of board crush is back up to 45 pct. Still Matif rapeseed is making new highs despite estimates that EU 2022 acres could be up 18 pct. Higher Black Sea vegoil prices is forcing India to increase palm oil imports. Talk of lower crop has slowed Brazil farmer selling. Argentina dry with 83 pct of 2nd crop mature. Trucker strike continues. SMN has found resistance near 20 DMA 463. China soymeal buying slowing.
Corn futures made new highs. CN finding resistance near 775. CZ new highs near 7.33. US corn demand increasing due to better livestock margins and increase export. Higher summer E15 adds physiological support but may add only 25 mil bu to crush. Putin remarks rallied new crop Matif corn. French corn is cheaper than imported corn and domestic wheat. Argentina trucker strike continues. Argentina fob corn basis down to -5/-10 vs +150 last month.
Overnight Wheat futures have turned higher. Dry US south plains and Putin remarks rallied Matif wheat new crop futures to new highs. Initially Matif rallied after Egypt announced EU only tender. Later Egypt added Russia origin. USDA estimates India wheat exports near 8.5 mmt. April-March exports could be closer to 10 mmt. Some suggest shift in exports capacity priorities could increase exports to 16 mmt. KWN testing Tuesdays high near 11.79. Next resistance is near 12.00. Daily volume has increase despite higher volatility. Fact wheat futures remain firm has some end users adding to coverage on fear of even higher prices.
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