Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 4 cents and near 14.87. SMN is near 457.5. BON is near 54.91. CN is down 3 cents and near 6.41. WN is down 7 cents and near 7.02. KWN is down 11 cents and near 8.57. MWN is down 8 cents and near 8.77. US cold temps and wet weather could slow spring planting. Flooding could slow US north plains and west Canada spring work.
Soybean futures rejected 15.00 SN. Higher Brazil crop adding the farmer selling and storage problems. Brazil soybean export prices continue to fall. Some now estimate that Argentina may need to import a record 11 mmt. Argentina crush margins are positive. World soymeal users have slowed buying due to high prices and uncertain demand. World SBO and RSO continue to rise on Canada and Ukraine supply worries. Indonesia monthly end stocks were down 15 pct vs last month.
Corn futures hit new high for the move since March lows and near 6.47 CN. US cash remains firm which is helping spreads and futures. Some will be watching weekly US export sales for more demand. US spring planting could be delayed. EU needs grain imports but E EU countries protesting Ukraine imports. Dry Spain weather adds to needs. Positive US weekly ethanol data is expected today. Brazil corn values on the decline due to lack of storage. There remains concern about extension of Ukraine export corridor deal. There were no new vessel inspections yesterday.
Wheat is continuing to see long liquidation and may be some new selling. US 8-10 day weather forecast keeps adding needed moisture into US south plains especially KS and NE. SW part of US HRW acres should remain dry. Market price action continue to reject 50 day moving average resistance now near 7.20 WN. KWN rejected 200 day moving average resistance near 8.73.There is talk that HRW crop could be down 50-75 mil bu from early estimates. US flour makers continue to talk about blending HRS and SRW to replace lower HRW supply. MWN rejected 100 day moving average near 8.90. Lower Russia export prices continue to offer resistance to US futures. Some though are estimating Russia 2023 wheat crop closer to 86 mmt versus 92 this past year. World 2023/24 Major exporter wheat stocks to use ratio could drop to a new recent low near 12 pct. 2009/10 high was near 23 pct.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Goldman Sachs earnings were lower than expected. UK inflation was higher than expected. India population is now higher than China.
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