Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 1 cent and near 14.20. SMN is near 431.9. BON is near 51.43. CN is down 2 cents and near 5.83. WN is down 8 cents and near 6.25. KWN is down 13 cents and near 7.63. MWN is down 11 cents and near 8.03. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower
China PMI dropped to 49.2 from 51.9 in March. This suggest slower economic activity. China’s party-state, long steeped in secrecy, is creating a black box around information on the world’s second-largest economy, alarming global businesses and investors.
Corn futures are lower. Some have dropped US corn exports to 1,750 and raised US carryout to 1,417 due to higher Brazil supply and lower Brazil summer corn export prices. They have also lowered US 2023/24 corn exports to 1,900 and raised the carryout to 2,370. This week’s Midwest forecast suggest warmer and drier weather which speed plantings. NOAA 30 day outlook call for below normal temps in east and below normal rains in upper Midwest. Most estimate US 2023 acres near 92.0 and yield 180.6.
Soybean complex futures are mixed. Soybeans are slightly higher while soymeal and soyoil are slightly lower. Some have dropped US soybean exports to 1,960 and raised US carryout to 270 due to higher Brazil supply and lower Brazil export prices. They have also lowered US 2023/24 soybean exports to 1,975 and raised the carryout to 440. World protein demand has dropped which is lowering China and Argentina crush. World palmoil, sunoil and RSO prices are lower due to increase in supply and drop in Asian demand. Most estimate US 2023 acres near 87.5 and yield 52.7.
Wheat prices are lower on improved US HRW weather. Drive through TN, KY and S IL SRW crop areas showed a very good crop. US HRS crop areas remains wet and plantings could be delayed. Russia wheat prices are set near $275. US SRW prices are now below Russia. Managed funds have no interest in buying wheat futures. Demand appears to have slowed due to slower and lower World economies. Wheat price have little weather premium in. Some have raised US 2023/24 wheat carryout to 650 due to higher crop. Most estimate US 2023 acres near 49.9 and yield 47.4.
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