Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 9 cents and near 14.05. SMN is near 417.4. BON is near 52.57. CN is down 5 cents and near 5.79. WN is down 8 cents and near 6.34. KWN is down 8 cents and near 8.48. MWN is down 6 cents and near 8.47. US stocks are lower. US Dollar are higher Crude is lower. Gold, sopper, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 293. Brazil soybean crop is est at 155 mmt vs 154 previous and Argentina 24 vs 27. US 2023 soybean crop is est near 4,494 vs 4,275 ly. Favorable start to US 2023 crop and lower China demand offers resistance. Most look for USDA to keep China imports near 96 mmt but could see more exports from Brazil vs US. EU biodiesel demand slowing do to more EV cars. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. India buying large amounts of sunoil bearish other oils. Trade est World 2022/23 soybean end stocks near 99.0 mmt vs 100.3 previous but 2023/24 at 108.0.
Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,094. Brazil corn crop is est at 126 mmt vs 125 previous and Argentina 35 vs 37. US 2023 corn crop is est near 15,120 vs 13,730 ly. Rumors Ukraine corridor talks could resume offered resistance. China cancelling more US corn weighed on futures. Todays US ethanol data could be key on demand for corn and gas demand. Trade est World 2022/23 corn end stocks near 295.2 mmt vs 295.3 previous but 2023/24 at 307.4. Trade est Brazil corn near 126.0 mmt vs 125 previous. 75 pct of second corn crop is favorable with some private est above 130.0.
KWN-WN spread is up to +213. KWK-WK was up to +276. HRW weather outlook is dry, HRS wet. Argentina is dry. EU weather is favorable but Ukraine is dry. N Africa is dry. Canada is dry. Trade est World 2022/23 wheat end stocks near 265.1 mmt vs 265.0 previous and 2023/24 at 259.7. Trade est US 2023 wheat crop near 1,789 mil bu vs 1,650 ly. Winter 1,230 vs 1,104 ly. HRW 591 vs 531, SRW 399 vs 337 and white winter 241 vs 236 ly. Some est of HRW are as low as 500 with KS at 180.
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