Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is near 14.68. SU is down 12 cents and near 13.46. Overnight high was 13.78. SX is near 13.32. SMU is near 404.8. BOU is near 57.68. CN is near 6.42. CU is down 3 cents and near 5.90. Overnight high was 6.04. CZ is near 5.93. WU is down 9 cents and near 6.92. KWU is down 10 cents and near 8.29. MWU is down 10 cents and near 8.46. US stocks are lower. US dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
C IA rains, poor demand for US exports and lower Brazil corn and soybean export prices offers resistance. Talk of uncertain relationship between China and US and slow China economy offers resistance. Some feel the dry area of US Midwest is shrinking. The area of concern is central US including IL, E IA, IN. Rains are expected in dry north EU and Russia spring wheat areas. Australia is also getting rains.
Some estimate US 2023 soybean crop at 4,442 mil bu vs USDA 4,510. Demand though could be 4,360 vs USDA 4,410. This due to lower exports. Higher carryin and lower exports suggest 2023/24 carryout closer to 400 than USDA 350. SU is rejecting the 200 day moving average.
Some estimate US 2023 corn crop at 14,808 mil bu vs USDA 15,265. Demand though could be 14,225 vs USDA 14,485. This due to lower exports. Higher carryin lower crop and lower exports suggest 2023/24 carryout closer to 2,175 than USDA 2,257. CU is rejecting the 200 day moving average.
Some estimate US 2023 wheat crop at 1,705 mil bu vs USDA 1,665. Demand could be 1,845 vs USDA 1,837. This due to higher exports. Higher crop and carryin suggest 2023/24 carryout closer to 600 than USDA 562. Algeria bought Russia wheat. Low Russia prices below local farmers breakeven offers resistance to US futures. WU is rejecting the 100 day moving average.
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