Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply lower. SN is near 15.03. SU is down 31 cents and near 13.05. SX is near 12.89. SMU is near 394.5. BOU is near 56.42. CN is near 6.31. CU is down 13 cents and near 5.70. CZ is near 5.77. WU is down 20 cents and near 7.17. KWU is down 13 cents and near 8.55. MWU is down 6 cents and near 8.66. US stocks are higher. US dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
Soybean futures are sharply lower. Despite lower weekly US crop ratings, slow US exports and forecast of rains across the Midwest next week is weighing on futures. US soybean exports are near 1,806 mil bu vs 1,890 ly. USDA goal is 2,000 vs 2,158 ly. Weekly US evaporation is 1.5-2.0 inches per week. US Midwest soil moisture deficit is 4.0-5.0 inches. USDA rated the crop 51 pct G/E vs 54 last week and 65 ly. IL 25, MI 23, MO 32, IA 48, MN 63 and TN 70. Much of the US Midwest is forecasted to get 1.0-2.0 inches of rain next week. There were cancellation of July soyoil delivery receipts. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil prices were higher, soymeal lower.
Corn futures are sharply lower. Despite lower weekly US crop ratings, slow US exports and forecast of rains across the Midwest next week is weighing on futures. US corn exports are near 1,278 mil bu vs 1,867 ly. USDA goal is 1,725 vs 2,471 ly. Weekly US evaporation is 1.5-2.0 inches per week. US Midwest soil moisture deficit is 4.0-5.0 inches. USDA rated the crop 50 pct G/E vs 55 last week and 67 ly. IL 26, MI 28, MO 31, IA 56, MN 57 and OH 66. Much of the US Midwest is forecasted to get 1.0-2.0 inches of rain next week. CN-CU spread is near +61. Cash is below delivery suggesting there should be deliveries against spec longs.
Wheat futures are lower. Concern over Russia wheat exports seem to have been avoided. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 50 pct G/E vs 51 last week and 59 last year. US winter wheat harvest is one of the slowest at 28 pct vs 44 ly. US wheat exports are 27 mil bu vs 49 last year. USDA goal is 725 vs 775 ly. US wheat production is slowly becoming for domestic use as more export demand shifts to Russia. Higher global interest rates is also slowing demand.
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