Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower this morning. US stocks are lower. US dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $68. Gold, silver, copper and coffee are lower. Cocoa, silver and cotton are higher.
Month end, quarter end and first 6 month end is near. SN-SU gained another 7 cents overnight and CN-CU gained 7 cents. Some feel cash do not support these inverses but spec long is holding on the July longs. US farmer is not selling. Cash buyers are waiting for summer low to add to coverage. Higher World interest rates continue to add recession fears and concern about lower commodity demand. From recent higher, SU is down 98 cents, CU is down 75 cents and WU is down 80 cents. Trade looking more at next weeks rain forecast and slow US export demand than drop in US crop ratings and dry weather until weekend and next weeks rain forecast.
SN is back below 14.95 and SU near 13.00. SX is below 13.00. SMU is down to 388 and BOU is trying to find demand support near 58. Trade is looking for US June 1 soybean stocks at 812 vs 968 ly. Lower number could push SN higher. US 2023 acres are estimated near 87.6 vs USDA March 87.5 and 87.5 ly. Brazil soybean export basis firmed on lower farmer selling. Argentina farmer sales only 10.8 mmt vs 19.1 ly.
CN is near 6.30 and CU near 5.55. CZ is below 13.00. Trade is looking for US June 1 corn stocks at 4,255 vs 4,349 ly. Lower number could push CN higher. US 2023 acres are estimated near 91.8 vs USDA March 92.0 and 88.6 ly. Brazil soybean export basis lower on increase farmer selling. Argentina farmer sales only 14.3 mmt vs 30.3 ly.
Wheat futures are lower. Canada wheat acres estimated near 26.5 vs 25.4 ly. WU is below 7.00. It would now appear that Russia could again resume cheap wheat exports of 4 mmt per month. Trade is looking for US June 1 wheat stocks at 611 vs 698 ly. US 2023 acres are estimated near 49.6 vs USDA March 49.8 and 45.7 ly.
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