Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is near 16.09. SU is up 49 cents and near 14.04. SX is near 13.87. SMU is near 423.7. BOU is near 61.29. CN is near 5.61. CU is up 6 cents and near 4.94. CZ is near 5.00. WU is up 1 cent and near 6.51. KWU is up 4 cents and near 8.02. MWU is unch and near 8.17. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch and near $70.78. Gold, silver and cocoa are lower. Copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher.
Soybean futures are higher. USDA lost 4 million soybean acres than the March estimate. SU tested 13.55. Much of the drop was in ND, IL, IA, MO and KS. Some feel the lower acres/crop could offset a lower export demand and drop US 2023/24 soybean carryout to near 160 mil bu. Key is no US yield below 50. Trade watching China. China is the largest short in the cash market. Some feel SU and CU spread needs to be near 3 to 1. This suggest 15.00 soybean futures. Palmoil prices are sharply higher following the higher US soyoil futures. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures are also higher.
Corn futures are higher. USDA found 2 million corn acres than the March estimate. Much of the increase was in IL, TX, IA, SD and MO. Some feel the higher acres/crop could offset a lower yield and keep US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,250 mil bu. Weekend rain coverage was less than expected but NOAA 30 day calls for normal Midwest temps. Normal rains across NE, IA, IL, IN, OH, KY, KS, OK, TX, AR. Some feel SU and CU spread needs to be near 3 to 1. This suggest 5.00 corn futures. Dalian corn futures are lower.
Wheat futures are mixed. Cheap Russia wheat exports continues to offer resistance to US futures. Russia est their wheat crop near 78 mmt vs USDA 85. Argentina lowered its crop rating 2 pct to 28 pct G/E. Canada 2023 acres are near a 22 year record high. Ukraine supplies have been increased. US June 1 stocks were 31 mil bu below trade est and 118 below last year. Total US wheat acres were in line with trade est and 3.9 million above last year. HRW acres were lower. All wheat US harvested acres though were increased.
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