Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was lower across the board with soybeans down $.18 – $.22, (July-23 down $.40), meal down $5 – $6, while soybean oil was steady to 40 – 90 lower (July-23 up 60). For the week the entire soy complex was slightly lower. Nov-23 soybeans traded to a new low for the week with the improved forecast. Next major support is the 100 day MA at $12.90 ½. Despite the low crop ratings I would not be surprised if the USDA held steady with their 52 bpa yield. With the lower acres this would still drop production nearly 200 mil. bu. to 4.314 bil. and ending stocks to 153 mil. assuming no new crop usage changes. Export sales today were a bit friendly at 29 mil. bu., 7 mil. old crop, 22 mil. new crop. Old crop commitments are still down 12% from YA, vs. USDA forecast to down 7%. Old crop c/o likely to be little changed from the current 230 mil. bu. est. New crop commitments at only 145 mil. bu. well below the 505 mil. at this point YA, the lowest since 2019.
CORN
: Prices were down $.08 – $.12 with Dec-23 back under $5 at midday. Updated forecasts added beneficial rains for the central part of the Midwest, including much of Iowa by late next week. The NC region of the corn and soybean belt remains the most worrisome with lighter rainfall totals expected with coverage more scattered. Temperatures mostly normal to below normal thru the middle part of next week as much of the corn across the I states (IN, IL, IA) start to pollinate. South American basis continues to improve, further narrowing the gap between US and Brazil corn prices. US remains $.10 – $.15 bu. higher thru the end of Sept, the smallest gap this year. For next Wed. USDA report I expect old crop stocks to fall 75 mil. bu. to 1.377 bil. as 150 mil. higher feed usage is partially offset by lower exports/ethanol usage. The new crop yield forecast is likely to drop 5 bpa to 176.5 leaving production down only 19 mil. bu. at 15.236 bil. with the higher acreage forecast. Carryout likely to stay in excess of 2.150 bil. Brazil’s production forecast is likely to increase another 2 mmt to 134 mmt. Export sales were above expectations at 27 mil. bu., 10 mil. – 22/23 MY and 17 mil. for 23/24. Old crop commitments are still down 35% from YA, vs. USDA forecast down 30%. New crop commitments have reached 141 mil. bu., lowest for late June since 2019. Argentina’s corn harvest has reached 52% according to the BAGE. They left their production est. unchanged at 34 mmt. Vs. the USDA 35 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across the board with KC down $.25, MGEX down $.05 – $.10, while Chicago was $.08 – $.12 lower. I look for the USDA to raise their winter wheat production forecast 51 mil. bu. to 1.187 bil. with an average yield of 46.2 bpa, up from 44.7 in June. While crop ratings suggest a bigger increase I suspect the USDA will take a slower more measured approach with this year’s harvest being delayed. I look for Spring wheat production at 470 mil., down slightly from 482 mil. YA. I look for US ending stocks to increase 33 mil. bu. to 595 mil. Export sales at 15 mil. bu. were a MY high bringing YTD commitments to 170 mil. down 24% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 6.5%. Argentina’s wheat plantings advanced 9% to 81% complete. Next week could very well be the last WW crop condition report.
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