Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 20 cents and near 13.86. SMU is near 404.6. BOU is near 62.55. CU is up 6 cents and near 4.98. WU is up 10 cents and near 6.57. KWU is up 10 cents and near 8.22. MWU is up 9 cents and near 8.60. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher. Commodities are higher on talk of additional China property stimulus. NATO meeting today. USDA Wednesday. US CPI Wednesday. OPEC meeting Thursday.
Soybeans are higher before this weeks USDA monthly supply and demand report. Average trade guess for US 2023/24 soybean carryout is 199 mil bu vs 350 in June. World 2023/24 soybean carryout could remain near 121 mmt vs 123 in June and 101 this year. There is talk that China bought 10-14 US PNW soybean cargoes for October for reserves. Brazil soybean harvest near 66 pct which could reduce new cash selling. USDA raised US 2023 soybean crop rating rom 50 G/E to 51. IL was up 6, NE up 12. IA was down 1. US WCB weather looks drier. No heat.
Corn futures are higher. Corn could see some short covering before this weeks USDA monthly supply and demand report. Key could USDA est of US corn yield. Average trade guess for US 2023/23 corn carryout is 1,420 mil bu vs 1,452 in June. Weekly US export remain down 32 pct vs ly. Brazil corn harvest is 27 pct vs 41 ly. Argentina 52 vs 64. USDA raised US corn rating from 51 to 55. IL up 3, NE up 5, IA unch. ND dropped 14 and SD is only 7.
Wheat is higher. Some focus on lower Canada, China and Russia crops may be offering support. Russia wheat prices are firming. New concern about French wheat quality also offers support. Trade est US 2023 wheat crop near 1,683 mil bu vs 1,665 in June. Winter wheat harvest is 46 done vs 59 ave. Trade first est of US spring wheat crop is at 477 mil vs 446 ly. Durum 60 vs 64 ly. US HRS crop was rated dropped to 47 pct G/E vs 48 last week. US wheat exports are down 21 pct vs ly.
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