Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 7 cents and near 11.79. SMH is near 342.9. BOH is near 47.23. CH is down 2 cents and near 4.28. WH is down 13 cents and near 5.83. KWH is down 13 cents and near 5.81. MWH is down 7 cents and near 6.64. China and Brazil are on Holiday. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is mixed. Gold is lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton and cattle were lower.
SH is near 11.79. USDA Outlook this week. Most look for US 2024 soybean acres near 86.7 mil vs 83.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout 420 despite record crush. One crop watcher lowered his est of Brazil soybean crop down 2 mmt to 147 vs USDA 156 and lowered Argentina 2 mmt to 54 vs USDA 55. Jan NOPA crush est 189.9 vs Dec 195.3 but new record for Jan. Soyoil stocks highest since July
CH is near 4.28. Corn futures battling unknowns of Brazil crop size, Ukraine exports, China imports and EU imports. USDA Outlook this week. Most look for US 2024 corn acres near 91.6 mil vs 94.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout is est at 2,493 mil bu vs 2,172 this year. One crop watcher lowered his est of Brazil corn crop down 3 mmt to 112 vs USDA 124 and lowered Argentina 2 mmt to 50 vs USDA 50. Weekly US ethanol prod could be higher than last week with stocks also higher than last week. Egypt bought Ukraine corn for March/April.
WH is near 5.83. KWH 5.81. MWH 6.64. USDA Outlook this week. Most look for US 2024 wheat acres near 47.5 mil vs 49.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout is est at 720 mil bu vs 658 this year. World prices have been trending lower with futures finally catching up today. There is a large amount of US SRW unshipped to China. WH-WK small carry, KWH-KWK small inverse. MWH-MWK small carry.
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