Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Mixed China news. Manufacturing data was lower, new home prices were lower but retail sales were higher.
SN is near 11.64. Managed funds increased net soybean and soyoil short last week. More technical selling with focus on end of month USDA acreage and stocks report and summer weather. Weekend rains were is NE and MN. More rain is expected in this area over the next few days. C and S Midwest will see 10 days of hot and dry weather. Ridge moves west after 10 days. Some estimate US 2023/24 soybean carryout closer to 400 mil bu vs USDA 350 and 2024/25 carryout near 500.
CN is near 4.46. Managed funds remain short. Focus is now on end of month USDA acreage and stocks report and summer weather. Weekend rains were is NE and MN. More rain is expected in this area over the next few days. C and S Midwest will see 10 days of hot and dry weather. Ridge moves west after 10 days. Black Sea remains dry. Some estimate US 2023/24 corn carryout closer to 1,937 mil bu vs USDA 2,022 and 2024/25 carryout near 2,290
WN is near 5.98. Black Sea remains dry. Trade will keep one eye on US sales to see if buyers switch from Black Sea to US and the other eye on new technical signals. Some estimate US 2024/25 carryout near 630 and USDA 759. Commodity prices including wheat are lower due to concerns about demand.
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