Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SN is down. CN is down. WN is down. KWN is down. MWN is down.
SN is near 11.71. US E and S Midwest high temps and dry weather. Rains are forecasted for 2nd week. US weekly export sales delayed until tomorrow. There were no daily soybean sales to China. Brazil soybeans are lowest to China crushers but US quality is better for China reserves. Soymeal futures may be near levels to begin to increase consumer 2024 and 2025 coverage. Vegoil lacks new selling to make new lows and demand to make new highs. Soybean futures could turn lower if US summer weather turns normal and China prices cheaper South America beans vs US. Bulls need help from mother nature. June 1 stocks could be near 1,015 mil bu vs 796 ly.
CN is near 4.47. CN-CU spread is -18. E and S Midwest will see 10 days of hot and dry weather. GFS model is wetter for week 2. US weekly export sales delayed until tomorrow. Argentina corn harvest near 49 pct. Crop still est near 46.5 mmt, Brazil corn is cheapest to Asia buyers. USDA US acreage and stocks report next Friday. US farmers have slowed new sales but still have 2023 corn to sell. June 1 stocks could be near 4,900 mil bu vs 4,103 ly.
WN is near 5.75. Drop from 7.20 May high continuous. US,EU and Black Sea harvest is weighing on US and EU futures. Canada, Australia, Argentina and Brazil crops look better than last year. One analyst est Russia crop near 82 mmt reducing chance of a crop below 80 mmt. EU and Ukraine lowering prices to compete for demand and are below Russia, Futures remain oversold. US June 1 stocks est at 690 mil bu vs 570 ly.
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