Global Ag News for Aug 5.24

TOP HEADLINES

Philippines Incurs $263 Million Damage Due to El Nino: Bulletin

Losses to the Philippines’ agriculture sector due to the El Nino weather pattern have reached 15.3 billion pesos ($263 million), Manila Bulletin reported, citing data from the Department of Agriculture.

• The dry spell affected 15 regions, more than 333,000 farmers and fisherfolk and 270,855 hectares of agricultural land, according to the report.
• The crop most affected was corn, with losses of 327,310 metric tons worth an estimated 5.94 billion pesos, while 330,717 metric tons of rice with a value of 5.93 billion were also damaged, the report said.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil down 0.62.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil down 1.23.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $7.60; Soyoil down 2.13.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 15.0% in SRW, down 13.5% in HRW, down 18.2% in HRS; Corn is down 18.0%; Soybeans down 19.6%; Soymeal down 6.3%; Soyoil down 13.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil down 16; Palm oil down 14; Corn down 20 — Malaysian Palm is down 129.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 129 ringgit (-3.29%) at 3788.

 

There were changes in registrations (-33 Corn). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 17 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,166 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 2 were: SRW Wheat down 898 contracts, HRW Wheat up 727, Corn up 9,535, Soybeans down 1,083, Soymeal up 8,416, Soyoil up 8,638.

 

Northern Plains: A front dropped into the region over the weekend but only brought isolated showers which continue on Monday. Another system quickly forms behind it for Tuesday and will send another front and much cooler air into the region for the rest of the week. Scattered showers are likely with the front moving through, though models disagree on the coverage and timing. The rainfall is likely too late for the wheat crop, but could be beneficial for corn and soybeans if it is not too heavy and does not cause flooding.

Central/Southern Plains: It was much drier this weekend while temperatures remained above normal. A front will sag south into the region early this week with some milder temperatures across the north. Another front will move into the region with a reinforcing shot of cooler air for late this week and weekend. The front may not get into the Southern Plains, however, and models disagree on the coverage and intensity of the rain that will come with both fronts. Any rainfall would certainly be helpful for filling corn and soybeans across northern zones.

Midwest: A front dipped into the region over the weekend, bringing some milder air into the north. The front will push through most of the region the next couple of days and another front will push through late this week and weekend with another burst of cooler air. Models disagree with the development of showers with both fronts, but agree that northern areas are more likely to see showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Beyond that, there is significant disagreement. The path of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Debby may also play a role if rain falls over eastern sections of the region later this week. Dryness would not be favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but the forecast reduction in temperatures may offset some of the stress.

Delta: Very few showers moved through the region this weekend as a weak front slid through. Dry conditions are expected all this week despite a front moving into northern areas early this week. Temperatures are likely to stay above normal, but the confidence of heat lasting into next week is low. Either way, the lack of rainfall will cause soil moisture to continue to fall and some areas are getting dry, unfavorable for filling soybeans and cotton.

Canadian Prairies: A front moved through the region this weekend and brought some scattered showers. Rainfall was not very heavy or widespread, though. A system forming in Alberta on Sunday will push slowly eastward through Wednesday and could leave behind an upper-level low into the weekend. Widespread showers are forecast this week with all the activity occurring and temperatures will be much more mild than the last few weeks. Even so, the better weather conditions are too late for much of the wheat and canola crops in the region that are on their way to maturity. In fact, the rain could lead to quality issues in some areas while delaying the early portions of harvest.

Brazil: A front moved into the far south over the weekend and will remain stuck there for the next couple of days. The front will get pushed a bit farther north with scattered showers mid-late week. Showers may get into Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo. Wheat across the south could use the rainfall as it continues to progress. Northern areas like Parana are much farther along and rainfall is much more helpful here. The front will bring in much colder air that could produce some frosts. Limited damage to advanced wheat in Parana are most at risk.

Argentina: Rains caught portions of the eastern wheat areas over the weekend as a front came through, but many areas continued to be dry. A system will move into the region on Tuesday and spread rain through more of the country through Wednesday, and even Thursday in the southeast, but dry soils need more than what is forecast to fall. A burst of much colder air will move through with the system and lead to some frosts, though they should not be harmful to vegetative wheat.

Europe: A small disturbance continued with scattered showers across eastern areas over the weekend while another front moved into France and Germany. Showers were favorably absent from France but spread through Germany and will continue across the northeast for early this week. Another front will go through midweek and another looks to go through late week with showers targeting northern areas with anything of substance and Germany and Poland especially. Poland will benefit but Germany is still too wet in a lot of areas for harvesting wheat or developing corn and other spring grains.

Black Sea: A disturbance moved into the region with scattered showers and streaks of rainfall, but many areas saw little or no rain. The disturbance continues Monday and Tuesday before exiting eastward into Kazakhstan. Some additional showers may occur in small areas of the region the rest of the week with additional disturbances coming from Europe, but the widespread heavy rain that the region needs continues to be elusive. Above-normal temperatures will continue drought stress as well.

Australia: A disturbance will bring limited showers to eastern areas Sunday and Monday, but then be much drier the rest of the week. Some areas in Queensland could use some rain. Western areas have been more fortunate with periodic rainfall and a couple more fronts moving through midweek should bring more.

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/2: 1
  • Total:  123
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/2: 63
  • Total: 1018

 

The player sheet for Aug. 2 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 202,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024. The announcement marked the second U.S. soy sale to China in as many days.
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: A group of South Korean flour mills rejected all offers and made no purchase of around 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from United States sought in an international tender on Friday.
• RICE PURCHASE: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog is believed to have purchased about 320,000 metric tons of rice in an international tender late last week

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley,
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

 

 

TODAY

Brazil Farmers Harvest 87.34% Of 2024 Second Corn Crop Versus 64.83% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 87.34% OF 2024 SECOND CORN CROP VERSUS 64.83% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Soy prices move down again in Brazil

The high 2023/24 supply in South America and expectations that the 2024/25 season may also be high in the Northern Hemisphere pressed down values in both the domestic and international markets this week. Due to price drops, Brazilian producers were away from closing trades involving large amounts. They are also focused on the significant exchange rate fluctuation over the last days, which can favor sales in the coming months.

Despite recent oscillations, the US dollar rose 1.7% against Real between July 25 and August 1, closing at BRL 5.737. Comparing the averages in June and in July, dollar quotations upped 2.8% and, against July/23, 15.5%, at BRL 5.55 in July/24, the highest monthly average since December/21.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) dropped 2.6% from July 25 to August 1, closing at BRL 137.67 per 60-kg bag on August 1. In July, the Index averaged BRL 138.09/bag, 0.6% lower than in June.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved down 3.1% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 133.07 per 60-kg bag yesterday. The average in July was BRL 133.07/bag, downing 0.4% compared to the month before.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) decreased 2.1% from July 25 to August 1. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations dropped 2%.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices moved down 0.2% between July 25 and August 1. The soy oil quotations downed 0.3% in the same comparison, at BRL 6,260.70 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on August 1.

Abroad, price drops are related to the low demand for soybean in the US and to favorable weather conditions.

 

Ukraine’s 2024/25 grain exports up more than 40%, ministry says

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 July-June season as of August 5 stood at almost 3.7 million metric tons, up more than 40% from 2.6 million at the same date a season earlier, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday.

The volume included 1.5 million tons of wheat, 1.6 million tons of corn and 533,000 tons of barley.

The ministry has said that the 2024 combined grain and oilseed crop could fall to 77 million tons, including 56 million tons of grain.

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023/24 marketing season rose to about 51 million tons from 49.2 million a year earlier.

 

Heatwave could cut Ukraine corn harvest by 6 mln tons, producers say

A record heatwave in July across most Ukrainian regions may reduce the 2024 corn harvest by about 6 million metric tons from last year’s level, Ukrainian producers’ group the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) has warned.

It gave no forecast for the resultant harvest total but its prediction is in line with a forecast last week from the Ukrainian grain traders union UGA, which foresaw a 2024 corn harvest of 23.4 million tons compared with 29.6 million in 2023.

Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the UAC, said over the weekend that the corn yield in many regions may fall by about 30% due to the poor weather, although the government is less pessimistic. The acting farm minister said last month the late crop yield might drop up to 15% in most regions.

Separately, analyst group APK-Inform said on Monday that temperatures decreased slightly in the last days of July, but overall conditions remained unfavourable.

“The agrometeorological conditions slightly softened, but remained at the level of unfavourable for the formation of yield of late crops,” the consultancy quoted Ukrainian state weather forecasters as saying.

Forecasters said that the prolonged period of high air and soil temperatures combined with a lack of precipitation led to the intensification and spread of drought conditions, which negatively affected the growth and development of late crops.

“In southern, central and eastern regions, corn, sunflower, buckwheat and soybean showed premature drying of lower-tier leaves and twisting of upper-tier leaves, in some places complete drying and sometimes death of plants,” they said.

 

Malaysia Palm Oil Reserves Seen at 5-Month High on Strong Output

• Stockpiles rose to 1.85 million tons in July, survey shows
• Production jumped 13% after dipping in previous month

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia likely rose to their highest since February, as production in the world’s second-largest grower rebounded and outweighed a surge in exports.

Inventories increased 1.1% from a month earlier to 1.85 million tons in July, according to the median of ten estimates in a Bloomberg survey of plantation executives, traders and analysts. That’s the fourth straight monthly increase, lifting reserves by around 7% from a year ago.

Crude palm oil production jumped 13% to 1.83 million tons, the highest since October, the survey showed, after dipping around 5% in June. Exports surged 25% to 1.52 million tons, the highest level since September 2021.

 

Good Monsoon Rains Help Indian Farmers Plant More Rice, Pulses

India’s farmers expanded planted areas for rice and pulses, helped by higher-than-average rains during the first half of the four-month monsoon season.

Rice has been planted on about 27.7 million hectares (68.4 million acres), up 5.3% from a year earlier, according to a statement from the farm ministry on Friday. India is the world’s biggest exporter of the food grain.

The area allocated to pulses rose to 11.1 million hectares, a jump of 11% from a year earlier. Sowing of corn and oilseeds also increased.

The country’s monsoon runs from June to September and rains are so far 6% above normal, according to the India Meteorological Department. Farmers usually begin sowing the monsoon crop in late May, and harvest it starting in late September.

 

More Rains to Batter Parts of China’s Northeastern Grain Basket

More heavy rains are forecast to hit parts of China’s northeastern grain basket, disrupting growth of crops like corn and soybeans, in the latest threat to the country’s output.

• High precipitation is expected in some areas of Jilin and Liaoning provinces in the next ten days, National Meteorological Center said Monday
  • Those areas have already seen flooding that has hindered crop growth, and too much rain risks spread of disease
• NOTE: Northeastern region, which also includes Heilongjiang province and Inner Mongolia, is China’s top corn and soybean hub, accounting for more than a quarter of grain output
• NOTE: China is battling a series of deadly weather events this year that have damaged agricultural production
• In other areas, including parts of northern and southern China, and the northwestern region of Xinjiang, high temperatures are baking crops from rice to cotton and affecting output, weather bureau said

 

China Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Rises 2.92%

Nitrogen fertilizer, represented by China granular urea, rose 2.92% to $318 per metric ton in the week ended Aug. 2, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

• China granular urea dropped 7.97% during the last month and was down 4.51% during the last 3 months
• Major Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Shares of Luxi Chemical Group Co. were up, while Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co. and Holitech Technology Co. were down in the latest week
• Major UAN nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Major Ammonia nitrogen benchmark prices were unchanged
• Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has decreased 5.1% during the last week and was down 21% during the last month
• The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, decreased 1.6% during the last week and was down 4.3% during the last mont

 

US Weekly Beef and Pork Production Estimates: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 499m pounds for the week ending Aug. 3 from 505m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 1.2% from a week ago to 593m head
• Pork production up 0.7% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.8%
• For the year, beef production is 1.5% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.4% above

 

 

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