Global Ag News for Sept 11.24

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil fires burn protective straw in another setback for soy

Brazilian fires that have burned through straw used by soybean farmers to protect fields from the heat mark another “aggravating” setback for this season’s crop, a farmers’ group from the world’s largest soy supplier said on Tuesday.

Aprosoja Brasil President Mauricio Buffon told Reuters in an interview that swathes of straw – dried grain stalks gathered from previous harvests that hold moisture in the soil during dry weather – were burned in fires.

Brazilian farmers usually start planting soybeans after first rains as of September, and most of them use the no-tillage farming technique which reduces soil erosion and uses straw.

Fires have been reported in many regions of Brazil in the last few weeks amid the country’s dry season, affecting several agriculture fields, such as sugarcanes.

Some people were also arrested last month on suspicion of setting part of the fires.

Buffon said Mato Grosso state, Brazil’s top producer of soy, is reportedly among the most affected by the loss of straw due to fires, as well as the states of Tocantins and Goias.

Dry weather has already been delayed soy planting in some regions, Buffon said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 9 3/4; Soymeal up $3.20; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $3.70; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 27 3/4 in SRW, up 22 1/2 in HRW, up 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $7.70; Soyoil down 1.92.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.0% in SRW, down 9.7% in HRW, down 19.5% in HRS; Corn is down 19.4%; Soybeans down 24.4%; Soymeal down 19.5%; Soyoil down 14.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans down 5 yuan; Soymeal down 36; Soyoil down 46; Palm oil down 46; Corn down 19 — Malaysian Palm is up 16.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 16 ringgit (+0.41%) at 3901.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 235 Corn; 230 Soybeans; 453 Soyoil; 100 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 10 were: SRW Wheat down 1,681 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,464, Corn up 11, Soybeans down 55, Soymeal down 3,975, Soyoil up 2,250.

 

Northern Plains: Temperatures will be well above normal through the rest of this week. A system will try to move into the region by Thursday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to occur either in western Montana or north into Canada. Another burst could come through in the same areas early-mid next week. Winds could be strong in some areas with these systems moving through, not favorable for harvest, and will generally dry out soils. The lack of precipitation could be disappointing for corn and soybeans that are behind developmentally.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Some drier areas in the region could use some rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. But even with a system moving into the Northern Plains later this week, rainfall is forecast to be limited and rather spotty going through this weekend. A cold front could provide better chances for scattered showers by the middle of next week. Temperatures are favored to be above normal for the Central Plains but closer to normal for the Southern Plains through Thursday. By late this week and into much of next week, temperatures will climb above normal for the Southern Plains while remaining above normal for the Central Plains. For those with fieldwork to do, it should be rather good conditions, but not for the remaining filling corn and soybean crops.

 

Midwest: Temperatures will continue to rise this week, becoming very warm and inducing stress in dry areas for immature corn and soybeans. Tropical Storm Francine will move into the Mississippi Valley later this week and could move into southern portions of the region. If it does, it would help to bring needed moisture in for winter wheat planting later this fall, and could improve water levels on the Mississippi River, but could disrupt the early harvest. Northern areas will likely stay drier, not necessarily good for immature corn and soybeans that could use some additional rain.

 

Delta: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to make landfall in southern Louisiana later Wednesday as a hurricane and provide heavy rainfall, gusty winds, thunderstorms, and pockets of flooding to the Southern Delta. Remnants of Francine will stall out in the Tennessee Valley later this week. That could cause damage and disrupt harvest, but increase water levels on the Mississippi River, which have fallen very low again. Scattered showers could continue across the Delta through early next week and temperatures are favored to be above normal across central areas.

 

Southeast: Tropical Storm Francine will make landfall in southern Louisiana later Wednesday as a hurricane and dissipate while working north through the Mississippi Valley, but then stall out in the Tennessee Valley later this week and weekend. Though it would no longer be tropical or even strong, scattered showers could continue throughout the region into next week and could improve soil moisture, but also ruin some open-boll cotton and mature corn and soybeans awaiting harvest.

 

Canadian Prairies: Heat will continue to be in the region for most of the next two weeks, but a few systems could provide brief cool downs to southern areas at times. A system will develop in the Northern Plains by Thursday and will spread rain into the region later this week with showers becoming more spotty by the weekend. A similar system could do the same early-to-mid next week. The rainfall would not be favorable for the continued harvest, but would help to reduce drought and build soil moisture for next season.

 

Brazil: Another front will move north into the country with scattered showers on Thursday, lingering around the southern states into the weekend. That will help states like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, improve soil moisture for any immature wheat or corn and soybean planting. Heat north of this front continues to bake soils ahead of first-crop soybean planting and soil moisture through most of central Brazil is way too low to begin planting. Wet season rains typically do not start for another couple of weeks and may be late, which would push back planting by a couple of weeks, putting the safrinha season in jeopardy as well.

 

Argentina: A front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday and bring showers, but very few areas are forecast to see meaningful rainfall. Most of the country continues to be dry, impacting developing winter wheat and delaying corn planting. There will be a brief break in the above normal temperatures from the middle to end of this week. Towards the second half of the upcoming weekend and into next week, above normal temperatures will return, which will evaporate more moisture out of soils. A stronger system providing more widespread showers may not arrive until the middle to end of next week.

 

Europe: Heavy rainfall over the weekend was favorable for immature corn, but not for any intentions of winter wheat planting. Hot and dry conditions in the east have also been unfavorable. Scattered showers are expected in the east on Tuesday with another strong front dropping into the west. A piece of the western system will break off in southern Europe and eventually move into the east late this week. Scattered showers could linger across eastern Europe this weekend into early next week. While rainfall will be favorable for those eastern areas, temperatures will drop significantly and higher elevation frosts and snow will be possible, a sign of the coming season of more variable conditions.

 

Black Sea: A system moving through eastern Europe will largely wash out as it moves into the region this week, though western areas could see some scattered showers. Another front moving into Europe will have potential for showers in western areas later this week and weekend as well. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia, large winter wheat areas, will have very little potential for rainfall over the next couple of weeks. The window for effective winter wheat planting will be awfully short this year as frosts and freezes typically start to show up in about three or four weeks.

 

Australia: A system will move through eastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday and produce only pockets of rainfall, a little disappointing for some winter wheat and canola areas that could use some more rain. A front will push through this weekend, but not produce much precipitation. Colder air will move in across southern areas, however, and some areas across Victoria and New South Wales will be watched for frosts. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will still be favored across western areas through the upcoming weekend. Another front could produce more widespread showers to eastern areas towards the middle of next week.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 10 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 8,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer GASC said it bought 69,700 metric tons of sunflower oil in an international tender at $1,045-$1,047 per ton on C&F basis for payment at sight.
• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase about 160,000 metric tons of corn and 35,000 tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Dec. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 27 via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction to be held on Sept. 11.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Sept. 6 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly higher than last week at 1.062m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.338m bbl vs 23.354m a week ago
• The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 10:30am Wednesday

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 5.51 Million Tns In September – Anec

• Brazil: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for France is incomplete from the beginning of 2024; export data for Bulgaria and Ireland not complete since beginning of 2023-24 season

 

Severe drought cut EU-27 corn production prospects

2024/25 EU-27 CORN PRODUCTION: 60.3 [57.3-63.3] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1.7 % FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 EU-27 corn production decreased to 60.3 [57.3-63.3] million tons, amid recent dry weather conditions in the southeastern Europe.

Past two weeks featured warm and dry weather in the Southeastern Europe, and colder temperatures in the West. Precipitation-wise, rainy weather occurred in Spain, U.K., and central Poland. While, severe drought was recorded in Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria, worsening crop conditions. Suppressed vegetation densities (NDVIs) confirmed the drought stress.

According to the latest weather forecasts warm and dry conditions will persist in the Central and Southeastern Europe. On the other hand, colder temperatures will occur in Spain and France. The long-term weather forecast for September predicts warm and wet conditions in the West, and dry weather in the Southeast. If the forecast verifies corn yields in Romania and Bulgaria could be reduced further. We will monitor upcoming weather, and satellite imagery and update our insight accordingly.

 

Argentina’s Bioceres says HB4 wheat launch in US to take at least two years

The head of Argentina biotech firm Bioceres BIOX.O said on Tuesday it will take at least two years for the firm to start marketing its genetically modified wheat variety HB4 to buyers in the United States, following a U.S. government approval.

Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture approved the cultivation of HB4 wheat, which has higher resistance to drought, following approvals from Argentina and Brazil.

Speaking on a company earnings call, Bioceres CEO Federico Trucco said that before the launch of U.S. sales, HB4 wheat must be developed with wheat genetics used in the United States and approved by countries that import U.S. wheat.

“We’re already collaborating with some (U.S.) wheat players, in particular the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation, with which we are developing seven types, focusing on hard red wheat for both winter and spring,” he said.

“Whether it takes another year or not depends on other elements involving trade implications particularly for U.S. exports,” said Trucco, emphasizing that approval by key importing countries of U.S. wheat was a condition for commercial launch.

Bioceres is working with the U.S. Wheat Associates and the National Association of Wheat Growers, two U.S. farmer groups that require that new varieties like HB4 wheat win approval from U.S. export markets prior to their use.

Major U.S. wheat importers such as Mexico, the Philippines and Japan, have yet to approve HB4 wheat developed by Bioceres.

 

 

 

 

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