Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher closing near session highs. Spreads rebounded a bit however remain historically wide. Spot Dec-24 exactly matched yesterday’s range. Near term resistance at the Sept-24 high at $4.16, with support at the 50 day MA at $4.04 ¼. Crop ratings improved 1% to 65% G/E vs. expectations for a 1% decline. Based on USDA ear population, weight data and improved ratings would suggest a US yield of 183.6 bpa, in line with the Sept-24 USDA estimate. 85% of the crop is dented, 45% is mature while harvest has reached 9%, all slightly above their 5-year Ave. Conab is forecasting total grain & oilseed production in Brazil will reach a record 326.9 mmt in 24/25. Their corn forecast at 119.8 mmt is as usual is well below the USDA est. of 127 mmt. France’s Ag. Minister increased their countries corn production forecast .4 mmt to 14.4 mmt. EU corn imports for 24/25 MY as of Sept. 15th have reached 4.28 mmt, up 17% from YA. Since 1990 final US corn production was above the USDA forecast in September 18 times, (53%) and down 16 times. In the 10 years where the USDA raised production in both Aug. and Sept final production was down 5 times and up 5 times. Harvest pressure appears to be neutralized by stronger demand keeping prices in a near term sideways trading pattern.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans up $.01-$.02, meal was $2 lower while oil was up 70-80. Inside trade for Nov-24 beans with near term support at LW’s low at $9.95 ¾ with resistance at its 50 day MA at $10.16. Oct-24 oil is poised to breakout of its short-term down trending channel. Next resistance is at its 50 day MA at 41.97. Inside day for Oct-24 meal with support at $313.30 and longer term resistance just above $333 near the August high and 100 day MA. Spot board crush margins improved $.02 ½ to $1.39 ½ with bean oil PV rebounding back up to 39%. Much of the central Midwest and ECB will remain in a hot/dry pattern thru the end of September as corn and soybeans quickly advance toward maturity. There are several chances for rain in Southern Brazil over the next 7-10 days. Rains are expected to gradually push north into Sao Paulo and Southern MGDS. Mato Grosso is expected to remain hot/dry for another few weeks with better rain prospects in late Sept. and early Oct. Crop ratings slipped 1% to 64% G/E in line with expectations. While overall ratings are still the highest since 2020, they are the lowest of the season. Current conditions and pod count data suggest an average yield of 53.5 bpa, vs. the USDA Sept. est. of 53.2 bpa. 44% of the crop is dropping leaves vs. 47% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 37%. Harvest has reached 6% vs. 4% YA and 5-year Ave. of 3%. Conab is forecasting Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop at 166.3 mmt, just below the USDA est. of 169 mmt. Since 1990 final US soybean production was above the USDA forecast in September 20 times, (59%) and down 14 times. In the 4 years where the USDA raised production in both Aug. only to lower it in Sept., final production was down 3 times and up only once.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed today with KC and Chicago steady to $.03 lower while MGEX finished up $.01. All 3 classes traded both sides of unchanged. Support for Dec-24 Chicago is just above $5.60, near last week’s low and its 50 day MA at $5.62. Support for Dec-24 KC is at $5.72. Rains will begin to fill in over the NW third of the corn belt and central plains later this week with heavier totals this weekend into early next week. Cumulative rainfall is expected to reach 1.5-3.0”, too late to benefit corn and soybeans, however will provide improve moisture for winter wheat. Spring wheat harvest has reached 92%, in line with recent history. Winter wheat plantings have reached 14%. France’s Ag. Minister lowered their countries soft wheat production .5 mmt to 25.85 mmt. SovEcon raised their Russian production forecast .4 mmt to 82.9 mmt, just below the USDA est. of 83 mmt. The EU’s soft wheat exports for the 24/25 MY as of Sept 15th have reached 5.39 mmt, down 23% form YA.
Charts provided by USDA Charts.
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