ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower overnight following yesterday’ modest rally. There have been reports of heavy rainfall damaging roads and slowing the movement of cocoa to ports in Ivory Coast, and that may have helped lift the market off its lows this week. World Weather Service says west-central Africa rainfall has been above to well above normal recently, with the exception of eastern Nigeria and western Cameroon, where it has been near to slightly below normal. They expect periods of rain to continue for the next ten days, maintaining the wet conditions and possibly raising some potential for wet weather disease in some cocoa areas. Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) blamed the decrease in cocoa availability this season to a delay of seed stock. The marketing year has just begun. In general, weather reports have been favorable for the crop this summer. However, the first week of deliveries to Ivory Coast ports started out slow.
COFFEE
December Coffee was higher overnight, continuing a recovery bounce off Monday’s low. The market sold off last week on the increased rain in the forecast for Brazil. Rains are expected to gradually improve over the next couple of weeks, which should spark flowering for the 2025 crop. Consistent rains will be needed to keep the crop developing and to reverse the damage from the severe drought this year. World Weather Service believes the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will continue periodically into late this month. LSEG says rains are likely to intensify during the December to February period, which would be good for the most part, but it could also bring some risk of flooding. Brazilian green coffee exports totaled 4.11 million bags in September, up 34% from a year ago, according to Cecafe. Arabica exports totaled 3.19 million, up 32%, and robusta imports totaled 912,000, up 41%. Vietnamese cash trade was sluggish this week, as supplies remained tight and beans from the new crop were not yet available.
COTTON
December Cotton was near unchanged overnight. The Delta and much of the Southeast will see mostly dry and favorable conditions for crop maturation and harvesting through much of the next two weeks. Hurricane Milton’s impacts will likely be limited to Florida and parts of southeastern Georgia. The trade is waiting on the export sales report this morning, and market bulls are desperate for a positive report. Sales this year are off to a very poor start. The USDA export forecast for 2024/25 is 13.70 million bales, only slightly above last year’s dismal 13.60 million and the second lowest since 2015. Even with such a low projection, US sales so far this season have only reached 46% of the USDA forecast versus an average of 59% for this point in the season. This is the slowest start in at least five years. Last’s week’s report showed net sales of 95,847 bales for the 2024/25 season, up from 87,784 the previous week but the second lowest since August 15. Any improvement in China’s economic outlook would help, and the trade may be watching the Chinese financial minister’s press conference this weekend that is supposed to provide details about their fiscal stimulus plans. However, keep in mind that China’s cotton crop is looking strong this year.
SUGAR
March Sugar was near unchanged overnight after falling to its lowest level since September 18 yesterday. The gradual trend towards increase rain for Brazil has pressured the market his month, following a rally last month on fears of much lower production this year due to the extended drought. World Weather Service sees rain gradually increasing through the month as the wet season finally arrives. The drought earlier this year has analysts expecting lower production. The next Unica update on center-south Brazilian production will likely be out next week. Thailand and India have seen much better weather this year, which could help offset a loss in Brazil. However, India may not allow exports, preferring instead to build up its ethanol industry.
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