Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. Soybeans and corn are lower. Wheat is higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Crude is near $70. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 5.71. Soybeans dropped after Trump announced tariffs if elected. EU delayed deforestation law which weighs on US soymeal prices. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower. Soyoil and palmoil were higher. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. USDA announced 175 mt US soybeans to unknown, This helped firm domestic basis and narrowed SX-SH spread from -18. US basis is firm with commercials looking for good N Midwest beans to blend with lower quality S Midwest and Delta beans. China was active buyer of US and Brazil beans. US Congress failed to pass law restricting biofuel feedstocks to domestic oils.
CORN
CZ held 4.00. Dalian corn was lower. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. Cash is firming and CZ-CH spread is -16. Open harvest weather could have harvest near 63 pct by Sunday. Weekly US corn export sales are delayed. USDA announced 1.6 mmt of new corn sales to Mexico. 1.0 2024/25 and 579 2025/26. This thought to be to Mexico soda industry. USDA also announced 332 mt corn to unknown thought to be Spain. US corn exports prices are competitive to buyers for now.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.81 and below 20 DMA. 5.71 is 50 DMA. Rain are forecast for US plains and S Russia. TX, OK and W KS could see 2.00-4.00 inches of rain next Sun-Tue. Some fear Russia floor price at $250 could actually end up being a ceiling price. Most quote Russia near $235-240. Ukraine is $230. There is concern that lower global energy demand could also reduce food demand. Wheat awaits news on global demand, US election and regional conflicts.
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