Global Ag News For May 19.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Bird flu in top chicken exporter Brazil triggers trade bans

• Brazil exports make up 35% of global chicken trade
• Outbreak at supplier of Tyson-backed Vibra -sources
• China, EU protocol: 60-day ban on Brazil chicken imports

Brazil, the world’s largest chicken exporter, confirmed its first outbreak of bird flu on a poultry farm on Friday, triggering protocols for a country-wide trade ban from top buyer China and state-wide restrictions for other major consumers.

The outbreak in southern Brazil was identified at a farm supplying Vibra Foods, a Brazilian operation backed by Tyson Foods TSN.N, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Vibra and Tyson did not immediately respond to questions. Vibra has 15 processing plants in Brazil and exports to over 60 countries, according to its website.

Brazil exported some $10 billion of chicken meat in 2024, accounting for about 35% of global trade. Much of that came from meat processors BRF BRFS3.SA and JBS JBSS3.SA, which ship to some 150 countries.

China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the main destinations for Brazil’s chicken exports.

Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Friday that under existing protocols, countries including China, the European Union and South Korea would ban poultry imports from Brazil for 60 days.

Argentina said it was suspending imports of all Brazilian poultry products until its neighbor is found free of bird flu.

Favaro said newly revised protocols with major buyers such as Japan, UAE and Saudi Arabia provide for restrictions only on shipments from the affected state and, eventually, just the municipality in question.

The outbreak occurred in the city of Montenegro in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, the farm ministry said. The state accounts for 15% of Brazilian poultry production and exports, national pork and poultry group ABPA said in July 2024.

BRF has five processing plants operating in the state. JBS has also invested in local chicken processing plants under its Seara brand.

State officials said the outbreak of H5N1 bird flu is already responsible for the death of 17,000 farm chickens, either directly from the disease or due to cautionary culling.

Veterinary officials are isolating the area of the outbreak in Montenegro and hunting for more cases in an initial 10 km (6 miles) radius, the state agricultural secretariat said.

Favaro, the farm minister, said Brazil was working to contain the outbreak and negotiate a loosening of trade restrictions faster than the two months agreed in protocols.

“We can calm the market and consumers, showing that other parts of the country have no risk of outbreak … and with that, get some flexibility from those countries with a total ban,” he said in a telephone interview.

Brazil, which exported more than 5 million metric tons of chicken products last year, first confirmed outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian flu among wild birds in May 2023, but had not registered a case on a commercial farm until Friday.

Chicken products shipped by Thursday will not be affected by any trade restrictions, the minister said.

US FLOCK DEVASTATED

Bird flu has swept through the U.S. poultry industry since 2022, killing around 170 million chickens, turkeys and other birds, while severely affecting production of meat and eggs. Bird flu has also infected nearly 70 people in the U.S., with one death, since 2024. Most of those infections have been among farmworkers exposed to infected poultry or cows. The further spread of the disease raises the risk that bird flu could become more transmissible to humans.

By contrast, Argentina was able to isolate a February 2023 outbreak and start resuming exports slowly the next month.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil up 0.44.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 12 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, down 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 18 1/2; Soymeal down $6.70; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, down 22 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 29 1/4; Soybeans up 8 1/4; Soymeal down $6.60; Soyoil up 0.40.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.4% in SRW, down 7.2% in HRW, down 3.6% in HRS; Corn is down 2.7%; Soybeans up 5.5%; Soymeal down 5.3%; Soyoil up 24.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 19 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil up 30; Palm oil unchanged; Corn down 11 — Malaysian Palm is up 67.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 67 ringgit (+1.76%) at 3882.

There were changes in registrations (-28 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 111 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 16 were: SRW Wheat up 134 contracts, HRW Wheat down 340, Corn up 22,348, Soybeans up 6,661, Soymeal up 3,248, Soyoil down 518.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 19 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: During the weekend, 1-2 inches of rain fell over the spring wheat areas in the Dakotas, partially alleviating soil moisture deficits
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry conditions were persisted across most of Central West Brazil in the last 2 weeks, an unfavorable trend for the 2nd corn crop
• EUROPE: Temperatures will gradually moderated across Europe through the next 10 days, with increasing potential for widespread rainfall activity
• BLACK SEA: Favorable rains were observed across most crop areas of Ukraine, with precipitation totals 20-35 mm above normal for the last 2 weeks

 

Northern Plains: A system moved back into the region over the weekend and produced scattered showers, which will continue through probably Wednesday. Heavier rainfall over the last week may have slowed planting progress and some patchy frost was noted over the weekend as well. But the rainfall will be good for early growth. Temperatures are cold this week and we may see some more patchy frost, but damage should be limited. Temperatures should flip warmer after Memorial Day.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers continued across Texas and Oklahoma and sprouted across much of the rest of the region on Sunday, producing areas of heavy rain and severe weather that continues through early Tuesday before the system pushes off to the east. Many areas will welcome the rain, especially in Nebraska that has been so dry, but wheat areas in the southwest will see very little and have trended drier, which may be concerning for filling wheat. Additional disturbances will bring showers through at various points this week and a more concentrated batch of heavier thunderstorms may be possible this weekend into early next week, but models are trying to decide where. Temperatures remain milder, with slower growth for plants, but less stress to areas that remain drier as well.

Midwest: A major severe weather event rolled through on Friday with widespread damage and even some areas of blowing dust. Another storm system will roll through with areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms through Thursday. Southern stretches could see more severe weather occurring with this system. The widespread rainfall should be beneficial for most areas, though some areas across the south are still a little too wet and this will not help that situation. Temperatures will be much colder than normal for most areas this entire week, which could make for some patchy frost under the right conditions. However, that is unlikely to occur or be widespread if it does.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front brought areas of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend as well as some severe weather. Another system will push a front through on Tuesday with more showers and potential severe weather. More rain is expected with another front this weekend and next week. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Though there may be a better stretch of drier weather later this week, temperatures will be much cooler as well, causing drainage of water to be slower.

Canadian Prairies: A system ended showers over the east on Friday, but another brought in more to the west and south on Sunday. This system will keep showers going across western areas into Wednesday and more showers may be possible in Alberta to end the week. Recent rainfall may have slowed the rapid pace of planting, but should have improved soil moisture for a lot of areas. Those that missed out in western Saskatchewan are forecast to see some decent rainfall this week to help out. Overall, conditions are still largely favorable across the region, though temperatures remain cool for most of this week and may lead to some patchy areas of frost.

Brazil: A front brought showers into far southern areas of the Brazil this weekend and will bounce around there throughout the week, offering some more potential rainfall. That is coming mostly for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state that would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers may make it into Parana and help filling corn in some limited fashion. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture.

Argentina: A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country over the weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. The front may remain active with scattered showers across the north this week. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment.

Europe: A low spinning in the east brought widespread showers, including some pockets of heavier rain to parched areas in and around Poland. Though temperatures were also cooler, the rainfall has been overall beneficial and even spread into eastern Germany. That system will continue showers through Tuesday across the east. Another system moving into Spain on Sunday will move across the Mediterranean with scattered showers this week and we could see more systems moving through northern areas later this week, weekend, and into next week as well. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK, but multiple chances are starting to show up to bring needed precipitation. They need to hurry for winter crops though, which are getting into reproductive stages of growth.

Black Sea: Streaks of scattered showers continued across the region over the weekend and an upper-low in eastern Europe will keep showers going through at least Wednesday. A wetter pattern over the last couple of weeks has been beneficial, but rainfall deficits are still very large in many areas. Though we could see another round of showers across late this week and weekend, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact winter wheat and emerging corn.

Australia: Some showers developed across the east coast over the weekend, but the majority of the wheat belt was dry. That largely continues this week as well though some showers may sneak into the west on Thursday, then into the east on Friday into the weekend. Large-scale dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country’s wheat belt, however, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

China: Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through to end the month, but are forecast to produce limited precipitation. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

 

BRAZIL FACES POTENTIAL REPEAT OF DRY JUNE-AUGUST SEASON

What to Watch:

• The precipitation outlook for June-August suggests a high risk of abnormally dry conditions in Southeast Brazil, with potential for more widespread extent
• Warmer than normal conditions expected across most of Eastern Brazil will mitigate the potential for frost in the coffee areas
• The outlook is relatively neutral for the 2nd corn late stages, but the local risks of harvest delays exist in Mato Grosso do Sul

 

The player sheet for 5/16 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 14,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia bought 621,000 metric tons of wheat in tender for arrival period August-October, the kingdom’s main state wheat buying agency the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said on Monday.
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States only

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

China April Cotton Imports -82.2% Y/y, Corn -84.5% Y/y: Details

China’s exports of rare-earth products fell 19.1% from a year ago in April, according to figures released by the Beijing-based Customs General Administration.

• Soybean imports -29.1% y/y to 6.08M tons
• Corn imports -84.5% y/y to 0.18M tons
• Wheat imports -61.2% y/y to 0.76M tons
• Rice imports +125.7% y/y to 0.4M tons

 

Global wheat market outlook: weather risks persist amid easing trade tensions

2025/26 WHEAT MARKET OUTLOOK – MAY 2025

• LSEG Agriculture Research forecasts global wheat production for the 2025/26 season at 794.99 million metric tonnes (MMT), marking a 0.3% decline from the previous season.
• This marginal reduction reflects projected production declines in the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and Kazakhstan, which are expected to outweigh gains in China, India, Canada and the EU.
• The short-term weather forecast for mid-to-late May indicates widespread rainfall across global wheat regions, particularly improving soil moisture in Ukraine, southwest Russia, and the U.S. Dakotas. Southern Europe is also expected to remain wet, supporting moisture levels but increasing the risk of winter wheat damage due to unstable weather conditions.
• These favorable near-term moisture conditions may prove fleeting, as LSEG’s long-term seasonal forecasts, indicate a high probability of challenging weather patterns.
• Bearish sentiment dominated early May, underpinned by favorable growing conditions across much of the Northern Hemisphere and a USDA report forecasting a 1% rise in 2025/26 global wheat production and slightly higher ending stocks

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices move down in Brazil

The productivity of the current soybean crop is satisfactory in important producing regions, keeping the domestic supply high – projections indicate area increases in the coming season. As for the demand, the trade truce between the United States and China may limit the increase of Brazilian soybean exports.

This scenario keeps prices low in Brazil. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.6% from May 8-15, closing at BRL 131.74 per 60-kg bag on May 15. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.3% in the same comparison, at BRL 127.51 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices remained stable in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers), but increased slightly 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar upped 0.2% against Real between May 8 and 15, closing at BRL 5.692 on May 15.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND – The USDA released a report on May 12 indicating that the global soy production is likely to change from 420.87 million tons in the 2024/25 season to the new record of 426.82 million tons in 2025/26.

In Brazil, the 2025/26 output may hit the new record of 175 million tons, 3.6% more than the 169 million tons indicated for 2024/25 – this volume is close to that projected by Conab, of 168.3 million tons in the current crop.

BYPRODUCTS – As for the soybean meal, the world production may hit the record of 287.63 million tons in 2025/26, 3.4% more than in 2024/25. Concerning soy oil, the output is likely to total 70.77 million tons, upping 3.21% compared to 2024/25.

 

CORN/CEPEA: High global supply keeps downward trend for prices in Brazil

Projections of high corn production in Brazil and in the world have been pressing down domestic prices. In Brazil, good weather conditions in many second crop producing areas sustain the expectation of good productivity, while the good pace of sowing activities and favorable weather conditions in the United States boost perspectives about the output.

In this scenario, some purchasers in Brazil prefer to be away from closing deals and expect new price drops to replenish inventories. Sellers, in turn, try to trade remaining batches of the 2023/24 crop and from the current summer crop (2024/25).

PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved down 3.8% between May 8 and 15, closing at BRL 73.07 per 60-kilo bag on May 15. There have been 20 consecutive days of prices drops, and the Index is at the lowest level since January, in nominal terms.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from May 8-15, corn values dropped more than 4% in both the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

ESTIMATES – Conab released a report this week indicating that the 2024/25 second crop is expected to reach 99.8 million tons, 10.8% more than in the previous season and 2% above that projected in April.

As for the summer crop, it is likely to total 24.68 million tons, upping 7.5% compared to the season before. The third crop is estimated to decrease 3.8%, at 2.38 million tons. The total production is forecast by Conab at 126.87 million tons, 9.9% more than in the previous crop.

Conab expects the volume allocated to the domestic consumption to hit 89.3 million tons, +5.3% compared to that in the year before.

The USDA indicated that the 2025/26 world season is likely to total 1.26 billion tons, while the consumption is expected at 1.27 billion tons, upping 4% and 2%, respectively, in relation to the 2024/25 crop.

CROPS – The summer crop harvesting has finished in São Paulo, Santa Catarina and in Paraná. Conab indicates that activities hit 77.6% of the national area up to May 10. Concerning the second crop, most crops are at good conditions

 

Severe floods hit Argentina farm region, thousands evacuate

Thousands of residents evacuated on Saturday as rains lashed the north of Argentina’s Buenos Aires province, a vital agricultural hub, and caused severe flooding.

The National Meteorological Service, which issued a red alert for the region on Friday evening, reported rainfall between 150 and 250mm (6-10 inches) between the cities of Zarate and Arrecifes. It warned that storms were “constantly regenerating,” with more rain expected.

Television images showed residents in Zarate, 100 km (62 miles) from the capital, navigating submerged streets in boats loaded with belongings.

A long-distance bus with 44 passengers was trapped by floodwaters on Route 9 near Zarate. “Water started coming in and covered everything,” the driver told the local C5N television channel.

In San Antonio de Areco, more than 260mm fell in 24 hours – an amount local mayor Francisco Ratto called “rarely surpassed.”

The heavy precipitation in the key food-exporting region is anticipated to cause further delays to the ongoing soybean harvest.

Argentina is the top global exporter of soybean meal and oil, as well as the third-largest exporter of corn and a major wheat exporter.

 

Argentina grain sales abroad tick back up as FX gap closes

Grain sales out of Argentina have bumped back up after faltering last month after currency controls were lifted, a report from the Rosario Grains Exchange showed on Friday.

In mid-April, Argentina loosened controls on currency which had led to a number of alternative exchange rates, including for agricultural markets.

The measure was welcomed by the grains industry, but sales were initially slow, with exporters unsure of where the currency would settle and as the soybean harvest lagged behind schedule.

But past weeks have ticked back up, the grains exchange’s report showed, with exporters closing deals to sell 11.6 million metric tons of grain at $3.86 billion.

Locally, farmers sold 8.8 million tons of grain, with over half of that being soybean.

The gap between the official peso-dollar exchange rate and the grain rates has also narrowed since mid-April, the exchange said.

Before, the gap was close to 30%, and since then has averaged just a 3% difference, according to the exchange.

“As the difference narrows, distortions between dollars received per ton on the local market are being eliminated, particularly on the supply side,” the exchange said.

The agricultural markets are an important source of foreign currency for Argentina, which needs the reserves as the government attempts to stabilize the long-faltering economy.

The administration of President Javier Milei had slashed export duties on agricultural shipments in a bid to speed up sales, though that measure is set to expire at the end of June.

“This window creates an additional incentive for the sector to front-load sales and settle exports before that date,” the exchange said in a separate report on Friday.

In the first half of the year, grain shipments are expected to rake in $18.2 billion, a 26% bump from the first half of 2024, while in the second half of the year, they would slide to $13.4 billion if the tax breaks are not extended, the exchange estimated.

 

German farmers plant more winter wheat and rapeseed for 2025 crop

Germany’s winter wheat area for the 2025 harvest has been increased by 12.2% from last year to 2.78 million hectares, Germany’s national statistics agency estimated on Monday.

This was only marginally different from its first estimate in December of a 12.3% increase after good autumn sowing weather allowed farmers to plant the crops they had intended. That was in contrast to autumn 2023, when rain hindered sowing for 2024 crops, especially wheat.

The agency estimated that German farmers have increased winter rapeseed sowing for the 2025 crop by 1.5% to about 1.1 million hectares.

All its figures are estimates which can be changed later.

Germany is generally the European Union’s second-largest wheat producer behind France and a major exporter. It is one of the EU’s largest producers of rapeseed, Europe’s most important oilseed for edible oil and biodiesel production.

Sowing of winter barley, largely used for animal feed, was cut by 6.4% to 1.22 million hectares, the agency estimated, with farmers having turned to higher-value wheat and rapeseed.

Grain maize (corn) sowing for sale on the open market was cut by 2.8% to 484,000 hectares while sowing of spring barley, used in malt and beer and production, was reduced by 7.3% to 334,000 hectares, the agency estimated

A reduction had been expected by traders because a mild Germany winter meant there was a reduced need for re-sowing of frost-damaged winter crops with spring grains.

Sowing of silo maize, usually for on-farm use or biogas production and generally not sold on the open market, dropped by 5.4% to 1.94 million hectares, the agency estimated.

 

Closer cooperation with China to unlock new opportunities in Malaysian palm oil sector

Closer cooperation with China will unlock new commercial opportunities in the palm oil sector, Malaysian Plantation and Commodities Deputy Minister Chan Foong Hin said on Sunday.

Chan, who is leading a delegation on an official visit to China from May 18 to 24, said Malaysia aims to strengthen bilateral trade relations, unlock new commercial opportunities, and drive innovation within Malaysia’s palm oil sector.

“This official visit underscores Malaysia’s commitment to deepening economic ties with China, enhancing market access for palm oil products, and supporting sustainable growth across key export sectors,” he said in a statement.

“China is Malaysia’s third-largest importer of palm oil and palm-based products globally, accounting for 10 percent of the total palm oil export value in 2024,” he added.

Chan will also be attending the Seventh Western China International Fair for Investment and Trade in Chongqing and will host a roundtable meeting with importers from Western China, noting the growing importance of the region as a major palm oil importer.

“The meeting will also discuss expanding partnerships in Western China, a region experiencing robust market growth and increasing demand for sustainable raw materials,” he said.

 

Indonesia palm oil group GAPKI urges government to delay levy hike

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association, GAPKI, on Friday urged the government to delay a planned hike in the palm oil export levy, warning it could harm competitiveness amid global trade uncertainties due to the U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tension.

Indonesia is due to raise its palm oil export levy to between 4.75% and 10% from May 17 to help fund a biodiesel blending mandate as well as a palm oil replanting programme. The levy currently stands at 3% to 7.5%.

“The situation is full of uncertainties and it is a big risk to launch a policy that will impact competitiveness of Indonesia’s palm oil exports,” GAPKI said in a letter addressed to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

A spokesperson for the palm oil fund that collects the levy said GAPKI’s request will be discussed at a meeting with government ministries next week. The finance ministry and coordinating ministry of economic affairs did not respond to a request for comment.

Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil producer, is facing proposed U.S. tariffs of 32%, while number two producer Malaysia faces a 24% rate. The tariffs have been put on hold until July.

“It is feared that this will make Indonesian palm oil exports increasingly uncompetitive compared to Malaysia, especially for the U.S. market which is currently dominated by Indonesia,” the group said.

Malaysia charges an export duty of between 3% and 10%, depending on the price of palm oil. For May, the duty has been set at 10%.

Sri Mulyani Indrawati said previously that Indonesia would adjust its crude palm oil export tax to reduce the burden on exporters from U.S. tariffs. The tax is separate to the levy.

Meanwhile, heightened tension between major palm oil buyers India and Pakistan has sparked concern about reduced demand, GAPKI said.

“There is no permanent ceasefire between India and Pakistan yet that had caused buyers from both nations to delay purchase of crude palm oil and its derivatives,” the group added.

 

India April Oilmeals Exports Rise to 465,863 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 465,863 tons in April from 409,148 tons in March, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 213,023 tons from 192,869 tons in March
• Soymeal exports rose to 230,743 tons from 187,678 tons in March
• Castorseed meal exports fell to 18,970 tons from 24,920 tons in March

 

US Pork Production Falls 1.2% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production falls to 522m pounds for the week ending May 17 from 529m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter down 1.1% from a week ago to 2.409m head
• Beef production up 1% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 1.3%
• For the year, beef production is 2.6% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.7% below

 

 

 

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