ADMIS News
COFFEE
July Coffee appears to be losing ground on ideas that the Brazilian harvest is not as bad as had been feared. Over the past few weeks various analysts have increased their forecasts for 2025/26 production from their previous assessments. Last week, USDA FAS’ initial assessments for 2025/26 called for larger crops in Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia, primarily due to higher robusta production. Brazil’s Arabica crop is still expected to be down from last year. The Brazilian harvest is underway, and that may pressure the market, especially for robusta, for which the harvest is more advanced.
COCOA
After the collapse on Friday, the cocoa market may be seeing some support today from another slow week for Ivory Coast port arrivals, which at 20,000 metric tons last week were down from 22,000 the previous week and 32,000 for the same week a year ago. Cumulative arrivals have reached 1.560 million tons, still up 9.1% from a year ago, but the slow start for the Midcrop suggests the drier than normal conditions this winter and the slow start to the rainy season have done their damage. However, conditions have improved in recent weeks, and this points to stronger production later in the season. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters remained optimistic in the face of below-average rainfall last week, saying that moisture levels were sufficient to boost development. A mixture of rain and sun is ideal, too much rain and not enough sun can bring diseases like black pod and swollen shoot, which were a problem two summers ago. In Ghana, data from the cocoa regulator Cocobod showed that arrivals at Ghanaian warehouses were near 570,000 tons as of May 2, leaving 80,000 tons needed to reach the output target of 650,000 for the 2024/25 marketing year, which ends on July 31. A manager for the Ghana Cocoa Cooperatives Association, a lobby group of cocoa farmers, told Reuters that it will be difficult for the growers to meet the target but was optimistic they could reach 600,000 tons, which is also ICCO’s forecast.
SUGAR
The sugar market has seen pressure in recent weeks from increases in production forecasts for top producers Brazil, India, Thailand. The UNICA report on Brazilian Center-South sugar production for the first half of May is due out this week, and the general consensus seems to be that the heavy rains in April that slow the startup of crushing operations in the first part of May. A survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Expectations calls for crushing to be down 9.9% from a year ago and sugar production down 11.5% to 2.29 million tons. On the bearish side, monsoon rains hit the coast of India’s southernmost state of Kerala on Saturday, eight days earlier than usual and the earliest in 16 years, which is viewed as beneficial for the crop.
COTTON
The cotton market is drawing some support this morning after President Trump postponed the 50% tariffs on the European Union that he had threatened to level last Friday. The stock market reacted positively, and any positive feedback from the US or global economy improves the outlook for cotton consumption. Excessive rains in the US Delta have slowed cotton plantings there. As of last week Mississippi was about 10 days behind. World Weather Service says West Texas shower and thunderstorm activity this week will be welcome and that field conditions in the Delta are too wet and more rain this week could continue to delay plantings. However, conditions are expected to dry out later this week. Monsoon rains hit the coast of India’s southernmost state of Kerala on Saturday, eight days earlier than usual and the earliest arrival in 16 years, which is critical to their upcoming crops.
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