Written Commentary
GOLD
Gold prices are higher on safe-haven demand after President Trump announced new tariffs on Canadian goods and broader tariff threats to other trading partners. President Trump said he would impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and planned to impose a 15%-20% levy on most other trading partners. This followed earlier threats against Brazil and proposed duties on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, Trump’s call for a 300 bps cut in the federal funds rate fueled speculation about a dovish Fed nominee next year and raised concerns over longer-term inflation expectations. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting indicate that policymakers are expected to make two 25 bps rate cuts by the end of the year.
Strong central bank demand continues to support gold prices, with a recent World Gold Council survey showing global central banks expect to increase their gold holdings. In 2025, central banks are on track to buy 1,000 metric tons—well above the previous decade’s average of 400–500 tons—with several African nations like Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar planning to expand their reserves.
SILVER
Silver futures are higher as the premium of US silver, platinum, and palladium against London benchmarks rose after Trump’s copper tariff announcement this week, leading to a spike in lease rates.
The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, driven by its essential role in semiconductors, solar panels, and other clean-energy technologies, sectors that continue to attract substantial global investment. That demand has remained robust despite broad headwinds faced in the last few months as a result of tariffs. South Korea’s exports rebounded in June largely on brisk semiconductor shipments, indicating the importance of and demand for the technology, despite challenges from higher US tariffs weighing on global trade. Recent data highlights this trend: China significantly increased its wind and solar capacity in the first quarter of 2025, while solar power generation in Europe surged 30% year-over-year during the same period. Additionally, the structural supply-demand deficit remains favorable for silver, with the market expected to remain in a deficit for the fifth straight year.
COPPER
Copper futures pulled back in the overnight session after finishing Thursday higher as worries that tariffs will hurt demand in the country.
Barrick Mining CEO Mark Bristow said he remains bullish on the metal’s future despite the short-term volatility. Bristow said that a shortage in supply, paired with growing demand in data centers, movements to cleaner energy, and growing industrialization in emerging markets, should remain supportive of prices in the long term. Analysts are expecting prices outside the US to be weighed down near-term as large copper producers look to shift supplies elsewhere. Global copper traders are offering cargoes to Chinese buyers as they look to offload metal no longer able to reach the US before President Donald Trump’s 50% copper tariff deadline. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, and the number of offers by overseas sellers has been picking up since late June and is now the highest in months, per a Chinese copper trader. Chile, the world’s top copper producer, is in wait-and-see mode after US President Donald Trump announced a surprise 50% tariff on imports of the red metal, with the Andean nation blindsided while its top miner held out hope of exemptions. Chile is the largest supplier of copper to the US.
The threat of tariffs on the metal used in the power and construction industries has created a massive premium for copper prices on COMEX above those on the London Metal Exchange, which are currently around $9,640 a ton compared to $12,150 in the US.
Chile exported $4.67 billion of copper in June, up 17.5% from the same month a year earlier, the central bank said on Monday. Meanwhile, production at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo jumped 11% year-on-year to 112,009 metric tons of copper in the second quarter, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. Output rose despite seismic challenges that disrupted operations earlier this year. The Canadian miner resumed operations in June and cut its 2025 production guidance by nearly 30% to between 370,000 tons and 420,000 tons.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
