ADMIS News
COFFEE
September Coffee backed off overnight after reaching its highest level since June 25 yesterday. The Brazil exporters group Cecafe reported yesterday that Brazilian green coffee exports in June totaled 2.30 million bags, down 31% from the same period in 2024. Arabica exports totaled 1.82 million bags in June, down 27%, and robusta exports totaled 476,334 bag, down 42%. This brought the total the entire 2024/25 season (July-June) to 41.38 million bags, down 5.4% from 2023/24. Total revenue, which included shipments of industrialized coffee, reached a record of $14.7 billion. Cecafe also said on that there are advanced discussions for coffee regarding the proposed 50% US tariff on Brazilian imports. More dry and mild to warm weather is expected in Brazil coffee areas through the middle of next week leaving no threats of damaging cold and most of the shower activity staying near the coast. Some cooling is expected late next week and that may bring some rain to Parana and Sao Paulo as well.
COCOA
September Cocoa gapped lower overnight and fell to its lowest level since November after second quarter grind numbers for Europe and Asia came in sharply lower than a year ago. Europe’s second quarter grind came in at 331,762 metric tons, down from 353,522 tons in the first quarter and 357,502 a year prior. This was down 7.2% from a year ago and the lowest grind since the second quarter of 2020, during COVID. Asia’s second quarter grind came in at 176,644 tons, down from 213,898 in the first quarter and 210,968 a year ago. This is a 16.3% decline from a year ago and the lowest since the 3rd quarter of 2016. The drop in the Asian grind was telegraphed earlier this week when Malaysia, the second largest cocoa processor in Asia, released their second quarter grind, which was down 22% year-on-year. The North American grind numbers are due out later today. The lower grind numbers indicate that high prices have eaten into cocoa usage. There have been several reports over the last year that candy manufacturers are turning to non-chocolate products.
COTTON
December Cotton is close to unchanged this morning as the rally off the July 9 lows has stalled. Energy markets are a bit higher today, which is supportive to cotton, and equity markets are near unchanged, as the Trump administration has apparently backed off from the idea of firing Fed Chair Powell. With the lack of other news, traders may focus on this morning’s export sales report. World Weather Service says Texas drying and warming during the next ten days will be welcome initially after abundant spring and early summer rainfall and that warming is needed in some areas to induce better degree day accumulations and improved crop development. A trough of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of America (Mexico) is expected to develop into a tropical low pressure center that might make it to depression status before reaching the Louisiana coast late this week and during the weekend. Some heavy rain and local flooding will be possible, but no harm is likely to affected cotton or sugarcane areas.
SUGAR
October Sugar broke out of a week-long consolidation overnight and traded to its highest level since June 17. The market has managed a decent bounce off 2½ year lows from earlier this month, which has corrected a short-term oversold condition. The market received some bullish news on Brazilian production on Monday when the UNICA report showed Center South production for the second half of June was down 13% from the same period last year, bringing year to date production down 14.3%. The market initial response was anemic, but it seems to be building on that sentiment today. The recent dry conditions in Brazil should be good for cane harvest and crushing activity this month. Earlier this year, there were concerns that last year’s extended drought had damaged the 2025 cane crop, and the evidence of this will present itself as we move through the harvest, which has a tendency to peak in the second half of July. World Weather Service says rain prospects are improving for Southern India late this week and through next week. Interior west-central and south-central Maharashtra and parts of Tamil Nadu will continue to be a bit too dry over the next two weeks. Maharashtra is one of the major cane-growing areas.
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