Written Commentary
SILVER
Silver futures climbed higher as investors looked to safe haven demand ahead of developments out of the White House today. Silver prices remain well-supported by a persistent structural supply deficit and robust investor demand. Industrial usage continues to expand, particularly in energy-related sectors such as solar power, electric vehicles, and electronics. Notably, solar applications accounted for 17% of total silver demand last year—three times their share from a decade ago.
On the supply side, global mine output has declined by 7% since 2016, contributing to an estimated shortfall of 800 million ounces between 2021 and 2025. Investor interest remains strong, with silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) seeing net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025. Since 2019, over 1.1 billion ounces have been drawn from mobile inventories.
Despite recent headwinds from tariff-related developments, silver’s long-term outlook remains constructive. Its critical role in clean energy technologies, underscored by rising solar capacity in China and Europe and resilient semiconductor demand, continues to underpin its strategic importance.
For silver, managed money traders were net sellers of 2,364 contracts, reducing their net long to 28,257.
COPPER
Copper futures are lower as a stronger dollar and uncertainty ahead of today’s meeting between President Trump and his Ukrainian and European counterparts weighed on the metal.
Copper has felt recent pressure from data out of China, which showed that new yuan loans dropped unexpectedly in July. A sign of weak demand in the economy despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster domestic demand, as the level of loans contracted for the first time in 20 years. However, outstanding total social financing, used by analysts as a gauge of industrial metals demand, rose 9%, hitting the highest level since February 2024.
Peru’s copper production rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, the country’s Energy and Mines Ministry said on Monday. The world’s third-largest copper producer said output in the month totaled 228,932 metric tons. Meanwhile, Chile’s state copper commission slashed its 2025 growth estimate for the country’s production, saying it expects an increase of 1.5% from last year, down from the 3% it had forecasted in May. The commission said the slide in forecast growth was due to a June decline in production at BHP’s Escondida mine, the largest copper deposit in the world, and at Collahuasi, which is jointly run by Anglo American and Glencore. It also said that the recent deadly collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente mine could pose a “significant risk of supply disruption.” Chile recently allowed mining to resume at Codelco’s El Teniente mine.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 6,512 contracts of copper for the week ending August 12, increasing their net long to 24,545.
GOLD
Gold futures are higher, supported by lower US Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskiy and European leaders later Monday. This follows a highly anticipated summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, which failed to yield any breakthrough on a ceasefire, though Putin agreed to allow the US and Europe to provide Ukraine with robust security guarantees as part of an eventual deal to end the war.
Investors are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for more cues on the path of US interest rates. The minutes to the last Fed meeting, due on Wednesday, will also be closely watched. Markets are pricing in an 84.9% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in September per CME data.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 7,586 contracts of gold for the week ending August 12, reducing their net long to 154,226.
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