Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is lower on increase efforts for Ukraine ceasefire. Trade watching Fed Chairman comments at Jackson Hole Kansas City Fed annual meeting. US Central Bank needs to decide between fighting inflation or sagging employment. China equities rallied to multiyear high on talk of new stimulus and US and China tension easing. World weather US Midwest forecast suggest August could be drier than normal for E IA,IL,IN,OH and KY. September could be drier for ND,SD,IA,MN and N IL.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.44. Soybean futures continue to be supported by bullish USDA August report. SU-SX spread has widened to -21, SX-SH -25. Pro Farmer tour est OH pod count at 1,287 up from 1,229 ly and SD at 1,188 vs 1,025 ly. One crop analyst increase his US soybean yield .5 bpa to 53. Best crops in IA, NE and MN. Lowest outlook in MI,OH,IL and IN. US soybean exports are up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 10. USDA rated US soybean crop 68 pct G/E unch from last week. Dalian palmoil was higher on increase regional biofuel demand. Sep board crush near 183 100 DMA and is oversold. One crop analyst continues to est SA total soybean crop up 15 mmt vs ly.
CORN
CZ is near 4.04. CU-CZ spread widened t0 -23. Pro Farmer crop tour est OH corn yield near 185.7 vs S&P Global 196 and SD 174.1 vs 168. One crop analyst increase his US corn yield 1 bpa to 184. Best crops in IA, NE and MN. Lowest outlook in MI,OH,IL and IN. USDA rated US cornn crop 71 pct G/E down 1 from last week US corn exports are up 28 pct vs ly and USDA up 25 pct. USDA announced 124 mt US corn to unknown. China corn imports to date only 2 mmt suggesting final exports could be below USDA est of 4 mmt. One crop analyst continues to est SA total corn crop up 16 mmt vs ly.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.22. WU-WZ spreads has widened out to -22 and 1 month low. Some feel USDA is 8-10 mmt too high in World trade. This could increase exporters end stocks. US wheat exports are up 4 pct vs ly and USDA up 3. Argentina and Australia futures are making new contract lows. France port vessel line up continues to increase to multiple destinations. Ukraine export interest increasing but mostly feed wheat.
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