Written Commentary
GOLD
Gold futures are little changed, trading in a tight range, although a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields could offer the yellow metal some support. Investors continue to look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for more cues on the path of US interest rates. The minutes to the last Fed meeting, due on Wednesday, will also be closely watched. Markets are pricing in an 83.1% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in September per CME data.
President Trump said he had spoken with President Putin following his meeting with President Zelenskiy and several other European officials and was working to arrange a meeting between the two warring leaders. While this raised hopes for a potential peace deal, investors remained skeptical about an imminent breakthrough. Trump told Zelenskiy that the US would help guarantee Ukraine’s security in any deal to end the war with Russia, though the extent of any assistance was not immediately clear.
SILVER
Silver futures are higher, getting some support from a weaker dollar. Silver prices remain well-supported by a persistent structural supply deficit and robust investor demand. Industrial usage continues to expand, particularly in energy-related sectors such as solar power, electric vehicles, and electronics. Notably, solar applications accounted for 17% of total silver demand last year—three times their share from a decade ago.
On the supply side, global mine output has declined by 7% since 2016, contributing to an estimated shortfall of 800 million ounces between 2021 and 2025. Investor interest remains strong, with silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) seeing net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025. Since 2019, over 1.1 billion ounces have been drawn from mobile inventories.
Despite recent headwinds from tariff-related developments, silver’s long-term outlook remains constructive. Its critical role in clean energy technologies, underscored by rising solar capacity in China and Europe and resilient semiconductor demand, continues to underpin its strategic importance.
COPPER
Copper futures are lower. Copper markets will be closely watching Thursday’s EU and US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data releases, as softer prints would reinforce current demand concerns, while any upside surprises could provide short-lived support. December contracts saw a large drop in price Tuesday morning, the catalyst remaining unclear at this time.
Copper has felt recent pressure from data out of China, which showed that new yuan loans dropped unexpectedly in July. A sign of weak demand in the economy despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster domestic demand, as the level of loans contracted for the first time in 20 years. However, outstanding total social financing, used by analysts as a gauge of industrial metals demand, rose 9%, hitting the highest level since February 2024. China’s imports of refined copper remained weak due to unfavorable arbitrage between SHFE and LME warehouses.
Peru’s copper production rose 7.1% year-on-year in June, the country’s Energy and Mines Ministry said on Monday. The world’s third-largest copper producer said output in the month totaled 228,932 metric tons. Meanwhile, Chile’s state copper commission slashed its 2025 growth estimate for the country’s production, saying it expects an increase of 1.5% from last year, down from the 3% it had forecasted in May. The commission said the slide in forecast growth was due to a June decline in production at BHP’s Escondida mine, the largest copper deposit in the world, and at Collahuasi, which is jointly run by Anglo American and Glencore. It also said that the recent deadly collapse at Codelco’s El Teniente mine could pose a “significant risk of supply disruption.” Chile recently allowed mining to resume at Codelco’s El Teniente mine. Chile’s Codelco asked regulators to authorize a restart in two more sectors of the El Teniente Mine on Monday.
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