Global Ag News For Aug 20.2025

TOP HEADLINES

New rules slow shipments from major Russian grain export port

Russian grain exports via the Black Sea port Kavkaz, which accounted for almost a quarter of all seaborne exports last season, have been significantly hampered this month due to new ship entry and inspection requirements, industry sources said.

Foreign vessels require permission from port authorities and approval of Russia’s FSB security service to enter the country’s ports, according to a decree in July by President Vladimir Putin.

Since the beginning of August, around 350,000 metric tons of grain have been shipped through Kavkaz, one of the six sources told Reuters, compared with 1.5 million to 2 million tons a month during the northern hemisphere summer and autumn.

Last August, shipments totalled 1.492 million tons.

At the beginning of last week, more than 120 ships were waiting to pass through the port, and freight rates for coastal vessels were rising, another source said, adding that terminals were overflowing with grain and had effectively stopped accepting more.

Ships that were scheduled to load in mid-July were loading now, two of the sources told Reuters. All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Port Kavkaz administration did not respond immediately to Reuters requests for comment.

The new season of Russian grain exports got off to a slow start due to a late harvesting campaign, but the decrease in shipments at other ports is not as significant. The situation in Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest grain port, appears less problematic, as does the Baltic route, the six sources said.

Kavkaz port is located in the northern part of the Kerch Strait which connects the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Ships pass under the Kerch Bridge on their way to the port, requiring additional inspections for security reasons, they said.

Grain exports through Kavkaz in the 2024/25 season amounted to 10.24 million tons, or 23% of all seaborne grain volumes, according to the industry sources and Reuters calculations.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil down 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 8 1/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans down 9; Soymeal up $2.80; Soyoil down 1.59.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 in SRW, down 24 1/2 in HRW, down 13 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans up 44 1/4; Soymeal up $21.30; Soyoil down 3.12.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.3% in SRW, down 11.0% in HRW, down 4.5% in HRS; Corn is down 17.1%; Soybeans up 1.6%; Soymeal down 5.6%; Soyoil up 29.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 30 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil down 144; Palm oil down 142; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 24.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 24 ringgit (-0.53%) at 4497.

There were changes in registrations (-143 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 1,289 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 19 were: SRW Wheat down 1,049 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,341, Corn up 211, Soybeans up 6,990, Soymeal down 11,427, Soyoil up 147.

 

COOL CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE LATE AUGUST ACROSS THE U.S. CORN BELT, HEAT TO EXPAND IN CANADA

What to Watch:

• Increasingly cool conditions and dry conditions are expected in the U.S. Midwest over the next 10 days
• Heatwave will expand across the western Canadian Prairies in the next week, threatening wheat crop conditions at late stages of development
• Early September should bring warming across the U.S., and cool/wet conditions in the Canadian crop areas

Northern Plains: Another front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will continue to drop through the region over the next couple of days with scattered showers. Another front will move through late this week and weekend. A more significant drop in temperature will follow behind the front going into next week. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

Midwest: A front continues to push through the region through Wednesday, bringing scattered showers and a slight drop in temperature. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that remain drier.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue in the region, especially across the south. Though a couple of fronts will move through this week and weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton.

Canadian Prairies: A system will move through later this week, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur.

China: A front brought some good rainfall to central China over the weekend, which will stick around this week with more rainfall. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be very helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

 

The player sheet for 8/19 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 9,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 228,606 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to Mexico for 2025/2026 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 90,200 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP TOUR: Nebraska Corn, Soybeans Estimated Above 2024 Levels

Corn yields in Nebraska are estimated at 179.5 bu/acre based on 336 fields sampled, above the 173.3 bu/acre seen last year, according to Pro Farmer Crop Tour data on Tuesday.

• Estimate is up from the state’s three-year corn yield average of 166.3 bu/acre
  • Estimate is below the US Department of Agriculture forecast for Nebraska of 192 from Aug. 12
• Nebraska soybeans are seen averaging 1,348.3 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, based on 322 samples; that’s above the year-ago figure of 1,172.5 and higher than the three-year average of 1,132.1 pods: tour data
• NOTE: Tour, which runs through Thursday, does not project soybean yields

 

CROP TOUR: Indiana Corn Seen Above 2024 Level; Soybeans Below

Corn yields in Indiana are estimated at 193.8 bu/acre based on 179 fields sampled, according to Pro Farmer Crop Tour data on Tuesday.

• That’s up from 187.5 bu/acre last year and the three-year average 182.1
  • Compares with US Department of Agriculture forecast of 205 bu/acre on Aug. 12
• Indiana soybeans are seen averaging 1,376.6 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, based on 176 samples
  • That’s below 1,409 pods last year but above the three-year average of 1,295 pods
• NOTE: Tour, which runs through Thursday, doesn’t project soy yields

 

Nebraska soy, Indiana corn show best potential in years, crop scouts say

Nebraska’s soybean pod count is the highest in at least 22 years, and its corn yield potential is the strongest in four years, scouts said on Tuesday during the second day of Pro Farmer’s annual tour of major grain-producing states.

In Indiana, corn yield potential is the highest in the tour’s records since at least 2003, though the average soybean pod count in the state is slightly below 2024 levels.

Market players are monitoring the four-day crop tour, which started on Monday and covers seven top U.S. corn and soybean states, for more cues on harvest prospects after the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast on August 12 a record-large corn crop, depressing corn futures.

Nebraska’s crops benefited from timely rainfall across much of the state. While irrigation is common in parts of Nebraska, the rains have helped to boost growth on dryland fields, which typically produce lower yields than irrigated acres.

“This is probably one of the better crops I’ve seen, mainly because the dryland (acreage) is not bringing the average down,” said Brent Judisch, a farmer from Cedar Falls, Iowa, who is on the western leg of the tour.

The Pro Farmer tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the average number of soybean pods in a 3-foot-by-3-foot (91cm-by-91cm) square in Nebraska at 1,348.31 pods, above last year’s average of 1,172.48 pods and the highest in tour records through 2003.

Crop scouts projected Nebraska’s average corn yield at 179.50 bushels per acre (bpa), above the 2024 tour average of 173.25 and the highest since the 2021 tour.

For Indiana, scouts projected an average corn yield of 193.82 bpa, the biggest in the tour’s records and an increase from the 2024 estimate of 187.54 bpa.

The tour estimated the average soybean pod count for Indiana at 1,376.59 pods, down from 1,409.02 pods in 2024 but above the three-year average of 1,294.98 pods.

“We see a lot of potential right now, but there is still a lot of this growing season left,” said Lane Akre, a Pro Farmer economist on the eastern half of the tour.

Scouts will survey crops in Illinois and western Iowa on Wednesday and the tour wraps up in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday.

The editors of Pro Farmer, a newsletter, will release their own estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production on Friday.

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 9%

July placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.55m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• That would be the lowest July level since 2015
• Estimates range from -13% to -6% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Aug. 1 seen falling by 1.9% y/y to 10.88m head
• Marketings seen falling 5.8% y/y

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 15 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.09m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.77m bbl vs 22.649m a week ago

 

Bunge Diverts Argentina Soymeal Ship Bound for China on Quality

Bunge Global SA diverted a cargo of Argentine soybean meal bound for China to Southeast Asia due to concerns it might fail to meet Chinese quality specifications, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The seller has opted to send China a separate cargo from Argentina at a later date, said the people, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to talk to media. They did not provide further details.

The rerouting of the rare shipment, which is being closely monitored by traders, highlights the caution surrounding this new tie-up between China and Argentina. It comes as the Asian country seeks to secure new sources of a key animal feed ingredient due to a trade war with the US, one of its top suppliers of soybeans.

It’s not common for ships to change destination while in transit and it’s unclear when the decision was made for this vessel to change routes. The original shipment was assigned to the bulk carrier Nordtajo, Bloomberg reported previously. Ship-tracking data shows the vessel departed Argentina in late July and was initially en route to Nansha in Guangzhou. Its destination is now listed as Singapore, which is a common stop for ships on the way to destinations in both China and Southeast Asia.

The single shipment is also noteworthy as Beijing mostly brings in bulk soybeans, which it crushes locally into meal and oil.

At least two vessels carrying Argentine soybean meal were booked for China on a trial basis earlier this year. Those shipments were the first since Beijing opened the door to imports from the South American country — the world’s biggest exporter of the livestock feed — about six years ago.

Calls and emails to Bunge outside of normal office hours were not immediately answered.

 

China July soybean arrivals from Brazil rise 13.9%, data shows

China’s soybean imports from Brazil rose 13.9% in July from a year earlier, customs data showed on Wednesday, while supplies from the United States fell 11.5%.

The world’s top soybean buyer imported 10.39 million metric tons of the oilseed from Brazil last month, or 89% of the total imports, compared with 9.12 million tons a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

July arrivals from the U.S. stood at 420,874 tons, down from 475,392 tons a year earlier.

Overall July imports hit the highest level ever for that month at 11.67 million metric tons.

“High imports were driven by strong Brazilian supplies and lingering concerns over U.S.-China trade that spurred stockpiling,” said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

“Risks for the outlook hinge on U.S.-China trade talks and the impact of domestic hog capacity control policies on demand.”

From January-July, China imported 42.26 million tons from Brazil, down 3% year on year, while shipments from the U.S. totalled 16.57 million tons, up 31.2%, the data showed.

China has not pre-purchased soybeans from the upcoming U.S. harvest due to high tariffs, an unusual delay that traders warn could see U.S. exporters risk missing out on billions in sales as buyers lock in Brazilian cargoes for shipment during the key U.S. marketing season.

In a Tuesday letter, U.S. soybean farmers urged President Donald Trump to reach a trade deal with China that secures significant soybean purchase agreements.

China imported 561,027 tons of soybeans from Argentina in July. Jan-July soybean imports from the country reached 672,630 tons, up 104.7% from the same period last year.

 

India July Oilmeals Exports Rise to 422,388 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 422,388 tons in July from 313,404 tons in June, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 209,128 tons from 184,064 tons in June
• Soymeal exports rose to 183,553 tons from 105,895 tons in June
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 28,158 tons from 19,257 tons in June

 

Brazil Corn Exports Seen Reaching 8.05 Million Tons In August – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.9 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 8.8 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.33 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 2.27 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.05 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 7.97 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Have Halved So Far in New Season

Ukraine has exported 3.1 million tons of grain since the season started on July 1, compared with 6.4 million tons at a similar time last year, the agriculture ministry said on its website.

• That’s a drop of 52%
• Total includes:
  • 1.73m tons of wheat, down 44% y/y
  • 503,000 tons of barley, down 54% y/y
  • 841,000 tons of corn, down 62% y/y

 

Brazil’s ‘soy moratorium’ site offline after antitrust ruling setback

• Move comes after competition watchdog’s crackdown
• Congressional committee had requested CADE probe
• Farmer group says growers no longer need to dodge moratorium

A website containing information about Brazil’s “soy moratorium,” a private agreement enforced by global grain traders to protect the Amazon rainforest from soy-driven deforestation, was taken offline on Tuesday after Brazil’s antitrust authority ordered suspension of the pact.

The move is a response to a set of measures enforced by the agency on Monday that include starting a full-blown probe into some 30 traders and industry groups for alleged anti-competitive practices.

The soy moratorium, long hailed as one of the most successful initiatives to protect the Amazon rainforest, bars soybean traders from buying from farmers who cleared land there after July 2008. But the General Superintendent regulator CADE ruled that it represents a potential breach of Brazilian competition law.

Superintendent Alexandre Barreto de Souza ordered firms to suspend the pact or pay fines at the end of a preliminary investigation, which was prompted by a request in August 2024 from the agriculture committee of Brazil’s lower house of Congress.

A majority of lawmakers in the committee is backed by farmers, who called the moratorium’s suspension a historic victory.

Soy growers, however, are not expected to clear big areas of forest as that crop has been advancing over pastureland, according to Mauricio Buffon, president of farm lobby Aprosoja Brasil. Rather, the initiative’s suspension changes market dynamics, he added.

To circumvent the moratorium, he said, farmers would go through an intermediary, accepting less money for their soy. The difference now is that farmers would no longer need a middleman, Buffon noted.

Most of Brazil’s soy is sold to China, but European nations such as Spain, Italy and Britain buy it, too.

 

Brazil government defends soy moratorium in face of anti-trust watchdog’s suspension

Brazil’s environmental ministry on Tuesday defended the so-called “soy moratorium,” a two-decade-old pact among traders to not purchase the crop from recently deforested land.

The day before, competition authority CADE ruled traders had 10 days to suspend the moratorium or face hefty fines, saying the agreement imposed unfair trade barriers on farmers.

“The (soy moratorium’s) longevity indicates its success and the absence of elements that could, in and of themselves, characterize a purchasing cartel,” the environmental ministry said in a statement.

 

EPA Nears Key Decision on Biofuel Waivers for Oil Refiners

The US government proposed a major increase in biofuels mandates earlier this year that would benefit farmers at the expense of oil refiners. Now the Trump administration is set to issue a second policy decision that could again shake up the renewable fuels market.

The Environmental Protection Agency could rule as soon as this week on dozens of pending petitions from small oil refineries seeking exemptions from ethanol- and biodiesel-blending obligations from recent years, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named before a public announcement.

The decision, expected to include some waiver approvals, was foreshadowed in court filings Tuesday. In status updates filed with a federal appeals court, the US Justice Department said the EPA “has now developed a new approach for reviewing small refinery exemptions and that EPA’s current intention is to issue decisions on the small refinery exemptions before it.”

Those decisions will encompass requested waivers now subject to litigation, including those sought by Wynnewood Refining Company, LLC and Calumet Shreveport Refining LLC, the government said.

Spokespeople for the EPA did not immediately respond to requests for comment earlier Tuesday.

The move could impact biofuel demand and trigger swings in the price of the compliance credits some refiners rely on to meet federal targets.

The decision comes at a time when the recently aligned interests of some farming and fossil-fuel lobbies on biofuel policy are coming apart — testing Trump’s loyalty to two key sectors of his political base. It follows an ambitious proposal unveiled by the EPA in June that would mandate oil refiners blend a record amount of biofuels into gasoline and diesel in 2026 and 2027.

For farmers and crop processors, making sure more corn ethanol and vegetable oils are blended into transportation fuels has become critical as they weather low prices and the impact of tariffs on trade. For some refiners, the blending obligation comes as a costly burden they have struggled to afford.

Under the US biofuel program, the EPA sets annual targets for how much biofuel must be blended into the gasoline and diesel that Americans use. Each gallon of ethanol or biodiesel produced generates credits — so-called renewable identification numbers, or RINs — that oil refiners can buy to meet their federal blending obligations. Under federal law, small refineries can be given waivers if they demonstrate “disproportionate economic hardship.”

But exemption requests have piled up in recent years as a result of court rulings, political pressure and shifting policies under both the Trump and Biden administrations. The EPA currently has a backlog of 195 exemption applications from companies including Delek US Holdings Inc. going back to 2016.

The EPA’s upcoming ruling on pending small refinery exemptions — the first under the new Trump administration — is expected to set a precedent for future years, particularly after a June Supreme Court decision narrowed the grounds for challenging the agency’s actions in court, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Brett Gibbs.

“The EPA now has the cleanest path forward on deciding small refinery exemption petitions,” Gibbs said in an interview.

Almost one-fifth of the pending exemption requests apply to obligations for 2024 and 2025, which refineries still have until December and March, respectively, to meet.

Biofuel producers say that if many of those waivers are approved — without the exempted quotas being reallocated to other refiners — it could reduce overall demand for their product and push down the price of credits in the next several months. If fewer exemptions than expected are granted, RIN prices would likely climb to encourage more biofuel to be mixed into the nation’s fuel supply and help refiners to meet the blending mandate.

The market appears to be pricing in around 20 exemptions per year — equivalent to about 900 million gallons of ethanol — according to Gibbs. That would allow biofuel producers to continue operating at current rates until early 2026, he said.

It’s less clear how the agency will handle exemptions for years in which the compliance period has already ended and which account for most of requests.

 

Lower area decreases 2025/26 Russian wheat production outlook

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 83.4 [81.7-87.6] MILLION TONS, DOWN 0.8% FROM LAST UPDATE

Reduction in sown area decrease 2025/26 Russian wheat production to 83.4 [81.7-87.6] million tons (MMT). Our estimate consists of 59.14 MMT of winter wheat and 24.26 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts. ROSSTAT reported wheat planted area at 26.9 million hectares, slightly below our previous estimate. As of August 13, Russia harvested 75 million tons of grain from almost half of the planted area.

Over the past two weeks, cooler temperatures have occurred over the Southern and North-Caucasian Districts, offering relief to drought-affected areas. Central, Volga, Ural, and Siberian District received abundant rainfall (15-44mm above normal) benefiting spring wheat development and replenishing moisture reserves. Vegetation density index (NDVI) values in key spring wheat regions exceeded the long-term median, indicating good crop conditions and increasing the national yield estimate to 3.19 t/ha.

According to the latest weather forecasts, cooler temperatures and sporadic rain should occur over the Volga and Central District. Harvest shouldn’t be disrupted in the coming weeks as no excessive rain is forecasted to constrain fieldwork.

 

Hot and dry weather conditions across Europe decrease EU-27 corn production

2025/26 EU-27 CORN PRODUCTION: 60.1 [57.1-63.1] MILLION TONS, DOWN 2.2 % FROM LAST UPDATE

Hot and dry weather across Europe cuts 2025/26 EU-27 corn production outlook to 60.1 [57.1-63.1] million tons. The past two weeks have featured heatwaves across Europe. Rainfall deficits and wildfires were noted in France, Spain, Italy, and Greece. Our latest satellite imagery analysis indicates that crops are in worse than average conditions – vegetation densities (NDVI) values are below the long-term median in Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary.

Looking ahead, cooler conditions and rainfall surpluses are expected across Europe till the end of August, giving relief to drought-affected areas, especially in France, Spain, and Italy.

 

 

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