Global Ag News For Aug 22.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Crop tour finds huge Minnesota, Iowa crops, but diseases lurk

• Corn yields in Iowa, Minnesota highest in tour history
• Warm, wet weather aids crop growth but also fosters diseases
• Southern rust observed in corn, yield impact uncertain

Prospects for corn and soybean crops in Iowa and Minnesota are the strongest in at least 22 years, scouts on Pro Farmer’s annual tour of top grain-producing states said on Thursday, but diseases already lurking in fields could limit yields at harvest.

The four-day Pro Farmer crop tour, which concluded in Rochester, Minnesota, on Thursday, found above-average production potential in each of the seven Midwestern states it covered. Several states boasted the highest projected corn yields and soybean pod counts in tour records dating to 2003.

About 100 participants spent the week scouting more than 1,500 corn and soybean fields in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Grain traders have been monitoring the tour’s findings to gauge the size of the 2025 harvest in the United States, the world’s largest corn exporter and No. 2 soybean supplier.

The tour projected the corn yield in Iowa, the biggest U.S. corn grower, at 198.43 bushels per acre (bpa), above the 2024 tour average of 192.79 bpa, and Minnesota’s corn yield at 202.86 bpa, a sharp jump from 164.90 in 2024.

The yield estimates for both states were the highest in the tour’s 22-year data set.

“The Minnesota (corn) crop was way better than last year. It’s a good, solid crop, with plenty of moisture,” said Sherman Newlin, an analyst with Risk Management Commodities who was on the tour.

The four-day tour, which does not project soybean yields, estimated the number of soybean pods in a 3-by-3-foot (91cm x 91cm) square in Iowa at an average of 1,384.38 pods, while Minnesota’s average count was 1,247.86 pods. Both were the highest in tour data.

“The story of the tour is the massive pod counts we are seeing,” said Ted Seifried, chief strategist for Zaner Ag Hedge and a scout on the tour.

However, the same warm and wet weather that helped promote crop growth this summer has also fostered the spread of yield-robbing diseases in the two states, particularly Iowa.

“Sudden death syndrome and white mold could be limiting factors for reaching today’s scouted potential” in soybeans, said Tim Gregerson, a Nebraska farmer on the tour.

Scouts noted southern rust, a fungal disease, in Iowa and Minnesota corn, although it was too soon to know its impact on yields.

“The crop still needs another four to five weeks to finish (growing),” Gregerson said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 1/2 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 0.02.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 1/4 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 15 1/2; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil up 0.71.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 15 1/4 in SRW, down 20 1/2 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 67 3/4; Soymeal up $18.30; Soyoil down 0.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.8% in SRW, down 9.7% in HRW, down 4.3% in HRS; Corn is down 15.3%; Soybeans up 3.8%; Soymeal down 3.8%; Soyoil up 35.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans down 24 yuan; Soymeal down 34; Soyoil up 36; Palm oil down 8; Corn down 11 — Malaysian Palm is up 71.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 71 ringgit (+1.59%) at 4531.

There were changes in registrations (-97 Soymeal). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 4 Oats; 0 Corn; 590 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 1,158 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 21 were: SRW Wheat down 927 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,026, Corn up 6,703, Soybeans down 3,215, Soymeal down 10,345, Soyoil down 6,372.

 

WARM AND DRY WEATHER COULD EXTEND THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IN SEPTEMBER

By Ed Whalen, Research Specialist, Weather, LSEG

What to Watch:

• Widespread warmth expected across North America next month
• Dry weather anticipated across most core crop regions

 

COOL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS PARTS OF EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA REGION INTO NEXT WEEK

by Ed Whalen, Research Specialist – Weather – LSEG

What to Watch:

• Pockets of wet weather expected in both regions
• Cool weather to prevail

 

Northern Plains: A strong front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will move through Friday through the weekend, stalling across the south where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front that will make it feel like fall. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

Midwest: A front missed some key areas in the south and east as it moved through this week. Areas from Missouri to Illinois are still on the dry side. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, but this run of dryness is not good for that prospect.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Isolated showers continue in the region, especially across the south. Though a front will move in and stall this weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton. Harvest has started for corn and soybeans though, which will only increase going into September.

Canadian Prairies: A system continues to move across the region through Friday, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through Monday. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

 

The player sheet for 8/21 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 19,000 corn, buyers of 13,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 14,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 90,200 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender, European traders said.
• CANOLA OIL PURCHASE: India bought canola oil for delivery in August for the first time in nearly five years, as local prices hit a 3-1/2-year high, industry officials told Reuters.
• PALM OIL PURCHASE: Indian importers for the first time bought palm oil from Colombia and Guatemala as producers sitting on surplus stocks offered cargoes at steep discounts, four trade sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 45,200 metric tons of rice to be sourced from Vietnam and Thailand.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 1.14M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 2.83M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Aug. 14.

• Corn sales rose to 2,833k tons vs 1,959k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 482k tons vs 723k in previous week
• Soybean sales rose to 1,137k tons vs 755k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 14, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 388k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Unknown Buyers with 895k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 119k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Aug. 14, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 5.3k tons of the 19.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

Argentina Wheat Set to Benefit After Rains, Grain Exchange Says

A storm that brought rain across Argentina’s crop region this week has boosted soil moisture levels in key wheat-producing areas, which will help uptake of nutrients as farmers re-fertilize plants, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

 

IGC Raises 2025-26 Global Grain Stockpile Outlook on Corn Boost

Global grain stockpiles in the 2025-26 season are now seen at 597m tons, up from a July estimate of 582m tons, the International Grains Council said in a monthly report.

• Corn stockpile estimates were raised to 294m tons from 278m tons forecast last month
  • The revision came due to an upgraded production outlook, with higher US corn area and yield projections
• Soybean stockpiles were also forecast to increase to 85m tons from 83m tons
• The outlook for wheat stockpiles was trimmed marginally to 264m tons

 

Ukraine’s Grain Harvest Tops 27M Tons So Far: Economy Ministry

Ukraine has harvested 27.3m tons of early grains and legumes as of Friday, according to a statement on the economy ministry’s website.

• That’s about 5% below the 28.6m tons collected at a similar time a year earlier
• Grain collected from 6.7m hectares, or about 60% of the total area to be harvested
• The total includes:
  • 21m tons of wheat versus 21.7m tons last year
  • 5m tons of barley versus 5.5m tons last year
• Sunflower harvest starts in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk regions; soybeans in Kharkiv region
• The largest harvests reported in Odesa, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad regions

 

French Corn Ratings Extend Decline Amid Hot Weather: AgriMer

Some 62% of the country’s corn crop was rated in good or very good condition as of Aug. 18, down from 65% in the previous week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• That’s below the 76% in the same period last season
• NOTE: A heat wave sent temperatures above 40C in the southwest of the country over the past two weeks, according to Meteo France; that’s a key growing area for French corn
  • After recent storms and rain, Meteo France forecasts cooler temperatures for the weekend
• The soft-wheat harvest is now complete

 

Pakistan to Import 1.1m Tons US Soybeans Worth $500m: B.Recorder

The agreement is expected to reduce the US-Pakistan trade deficit and it will replace existing imports largely from Brazil, Business Recorder reports.

• All Pakistan Solvent Extractors’ Association delegation made agreements with leading soybean exporters after meeting importers including Cargill, LDC, Olam

 

Saskatchewan premier to go to China in bid to end canola tariffs

Scott Moe, premier of the major grain-growing Canadian province of Saskatchewan, said on Thursday he will travel to China soon for talks to persuade Beijing to drop new tariffs on canola.

China hit Canadian canola seed imports with preliminary 75.8% duties last week following an anti-dumping investigation, escalating a year-long trade dispute. China is by far Canada’s biggest canola seed market.

Canadian Federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald also pledged support for farmers and the industry, which says it employs 200,000 people and produces C$43 billion in economic value.

“We’re working diligently alongside them,” MacDonald said in a phone interview after the meeting ended.

Canada, the world’s largest exporter of canola, shipped almost C$5 billion ($3.63 billion) of canola products to China in 2024, about 80% of which was seed. The steep duties on canola seed, if they remain in place, would likely all but end those Chinese imports.

China objected when Canada imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles a year ago, and launched an anti-dumping investigation into canola seed shortly thereafter. In February, it imposed a tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, as well as a number of other agricultural products.

This month’s addition of canola seed to China’s tariff targets came shortly after Canada imposed tariffs on steel in July, which also upset Beijing.

“Myself will be in China in the next couple of weeks with potentially another opportunity for engagement before the end of the calendar year,” Moe told a news conference after a meeting with industry officials and MacDonald. Moe also reiterated a call for federal aid for the industry.

MacDonald said it was too early to decide what help farmers might need, but “it could be there some day” if the dispute drags on.

He added that it was difficult to assess all of China’s motives in the dispute.

“You’re dealing with a partner that you’re not 100% sure all of the time what their prerogatives are. Are they just political, or is it something else?” MacDonald said.

($1 = 1.3905 Canadian dollars)

 

US to rule on biofuel waivers, but big oil refiners may need to wait, sources say

• EPA expected to rule soon on a number of the 190 pending refiner exemption requests.
• EPA expected to delay decision on whether larger refiners should make up for exempted gallons.
• The decisions will have significant impacts on oil and farm industries.

President Donald Trump’s administration is expected to rule on a growing backlog of requests from small oil refiners seeking relief from U.S. biofuel laws as early as Friday, but will delay a decision on whether larger refiners must compensate by boosting their own biofuel blending, according to two sources familiar with the planning.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Friday will announce decisions on some of the 195 pending small refinery exemption requests that date back as far as 2016, the sources said. The rulings will not be a sweeping win for small refiners, and will include some partial denials of waivers, according to one of the sources briefed on the decisions.

The administration is also expected to issue a supplemental rule as early as next week to seek public comment on whether larger refiners should make up for the exempted gallons in a process known as reallocation, the source said.

How the administration deals with exemption requests and the reallocation issues will have consequences for the oil and agricultural industries, and impact the price of commodities from gasoline and renewable diesel to soybeans and corn, along with the companies that produce them.

In the past, widespread exemptions without reallocation have sent renewable blending credit prices lower, denting prices for corn-based ethanol and soybean-based biofuel.

The EPA and White House did not respond to requests for comment.

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard requires refiners to blend biofuels like ethanol into the fuel pool or by the tradable credits, known as RINs, from refiners who do. Small refiners can petition the EPA to receive an exemption if they can show financial hardship.

The EPA has a mounting backlog of such requests going back years – the result of political indecision and legal wrangling across multiple administrations. Both the agriculture and the oil industries are keen for resolution.

Granting exemptions without forcing other refiners to make up the difference increases the supply of credits and puts downward pressure on their prices.

Farm and biofuel groups have lobbied the EPA to limit the number of exemptions and to force other refiners to make up for exempted gallons.

The oil industry is strongly opposed to reallocation, arguing it creates an uneven playing field and imposes burdensome regulatory costs.

The EPA said earlier this year that it would force larger refiners to make up for future exempted gallons, but was silent on how it would treat exempt gallons from the dozens of backlogged requests.

The supplemental rule will include various options in a bid to test how the market may respond, the sources said.

 

India imports canola oil after 5 years as local prices surge

India bought canola oil for delivery in August for the first time in nearly five years, as local prices hit a 3-½-year high, making overseas purchases lucrative, industry officials told Reuters.

A shipment of 6,000 tons of canola oil from the United Arab Emirates is expected to arrive at Kandla port in Gujarat this month, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

India mainly buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

In July, rapeseed oil prices in the spot market surged to 167,000 rupees ($1,914.02) per ton — the highest since February 2022 and almost 34% above year-ago levels.

“The price rally is creating an opening for imports, and we might see more coming in since the new local crop won’t hit the market until March next year,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

India’s soyoil imports have also been rising, with some buyers substituting costlier rapeseed oil with the cheaper alternative, he said.

 

China to Purchase 10,000 Tons of Pork for Reserves on Aug. 25

China will buy 10,000 tons of frozen pork for state reserves via bidding on Aug. 25, according to a statement posted on website of China Merchandise Reserve Management Center.

 

US generated more renewable blending credits in July, EPA says

The U.S. generated more renewable blending credits in July than June, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

About 1.26 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in July, compared with about 1.25 billion in June, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to 635 million in July from 630 million in the prior month, according to the data.

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 4.4% Y/y in July

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.36b pounds in July, according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 4.5% y/y to 2.18b pounds
• July cattle slaughter totaled 2.54m head, a 6.8% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 30 pounds from last year to 1,410 pounds
• Pork production down 4.2% y/y to 2.16b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 3.9% y/y to 10,268m head
  • Avg live weight was 282 pounds vs 283 pounds a year ago

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 667k tons in the week ending Aug. 16 from 853k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 6% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 36.2% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.51 per short ton, an increase of $0.60 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Aug. 19: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Aug. 19, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas rose to 5% from 4% in the previous week
• Drought in soybean areas 9% vs 3%

 

US Milk Production Rose 3.5% Y/y in July, USDA Says

Agency releases report on website.

• Output for the 24 major-producing states was 18.81b lbs, 637m more than in July of last year
• Milk per cow averaged 2,081 lbs, a 1.8% increase from last year
• Estimated output for all the US rose 3.4% y/y to 19.57b lbs

 

 

 

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