Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
October Crude Oil was higher overnight after a Ukrainian drone attacks on Sunday attacks forced sharp drop in the capacity of a nuclear reactor at one Russia’s biggest nuclear power plants located east of the Ukraine/Russia border, and another one hit at a major fuel export terminal located on the Gulf of Finland. The threat of US sanctions on Russian crude oil seemed to grow on Friday after President Trump warned on Friday that he would impose more sanctions if there was no progress toward a peaceful settlement in Ukraine in two weeks. However, Vice President Vance said on Sunday that Russia had made “significant concessions” towards a negotiated settlement in its war with Ukraine and was confident progress was being made. India’s crude oil imports fell to 18.56 million metric tons in July, the lowest since February 2024, according to Indian government data. This was down 4.3% from 19.40 million tons in July 2024. India appeared to slow their purchases of Russian crude when they were negotiating with the US over tariff rates. Since the US went ahead and imposed an additional 25% tariff due to India’s their purchases of Russian crude, bringing their total tariff to 50%, there have been reports that Indian state firms were resuming their purchases of Russian oil. The increase in OPEC+ production this year provide an offset to the sanctions threat. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US oil rigs in operation were down 1 rig to 411 last week.
NATURAL GAS
October Crude Oil was higher overnight after a Ukrainian drone attacks on Sunday attacks forced sharp drop in the capacity of a nuclear reactor at one Russia’s biggest nuclear power plants located east of the Ukraine/Russia border, and another one hit at a major fuel export terminal located on the Gulf of Finland. The threat of US sanctions on Russian crude oil seemed to grow on Friday after President Trump warned on Friday that he would impose more sanctions if there was no progress toward a peaceful settlement in Ukraine in two weeks. However, Vice President Vance said on Sunday that Russia had made “significant concessions” towards a negotiated settlement in its war with Ukraine and was confident progress was being made. India’s crude oil imports fell to 18.56 million metric tons in July, the lowest since February 2024, according to Indian government data. This was down 4.3% from 19.40 million tons in July 2024. India appeared to slow their purchases of Russian crude when they were negotiating with the US over tariff rates. Since the US went ahead and imposed an additional 25% tariff due to India’s their purchases of Russian crude, bringing their total tariff to 50%, there have been reports that Indian state firms were resuming their purchases of Russian oil. The increase in OPEC+ production this year provide an offset to the sanctions threat. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US oil rigs in operation were down 1 rig to 411 last week
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