ADMIS News
SUGAR
October Sugar extended this week’s decline overnight and even fell below the August 5 low at 15.92. Global supply expectations have increased recently, with the International Sugar Organization saying last week Friday that it expects the 2025/26 production deficit to narrow to 231,000 metric tons from a deficit of 4.88 million in 2024/25, the Indian government allowing more ethanol production from cane products, an indication that they are confident that their sugar supply will be ample this year, and Brazilian Center South sugar production for the first half of August coming in 16% higher than the same period a year ago. The head of Ukraine’s national sugar union said this week that their nation’s white sugar production will likely fall to 1.5 million metric tons in 2025 from 1.8 million tons in a previous forecast due to stocks and export challenges.
COCOA
December Cocoa consolidated inside Monday’s big range down yesterday and overnight. The market broke this week on upbeat expectations for the upcoming West African main crop. However, conditions remain dry there, and if they do not pick up in the next week or so, traders may start to get concerned. World Weather Service does not expect the current patterns to change much during the next week. Showers and thunderstorms will occur mostly in northern Ivory Coast and northern Ghana but skip cocoa production areas in the south. Rain will fall a little more significantly across parts of Nigeria and Cameroon, and some of those areas would benefit from a boost in rainfall. Growers interviewed this week in Ivory Coast were mostly upbeat about the 2025/26 main crop’s prospects, and a Reuters poll of analysts forecast a global surplus of 200,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, up from a surplus of 98,000 tons in 2024/25.
COTTON
December Cotton recovered some of Tuesday’s losses overnight but has yet to embark on an all-out recovery rally. US crop prospects are strong, and US export sales for 2025/26 have started out at their slowest pace in 11 years. About the only supportive factor is that prices are hovering around five-year lows and that funds are loaded-up on the short side. As of last week’s report, cumulative export sales for 2025/26 had reached 30% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 47% for this point in the marketing year. China has purchased no US cotton so far for 2025/26. This week’s report will be released tomorrow due to the holiday on Monday. News that an appeals court had rejected most of the Trump tariffs may have lent support to the market yesterday, but the issue will likely go to the Supreme Court and will take some time to resolve. World Weather Service reports that beneficial rain has fallen in the past week across the Texas Panhandle, central parts of West Texas and the Blacklands, but more rain is needed in the southwestern dryland areas of West Texas. The US Delta is dry, resulting in some crop stress. This week’s cooler temperatures will slow crop development rates.
COFFEE
December Coffee is in the lower part of Tuesday’s range down action this morning. After a 41% rally during the month of August, the market may be due for some sort of correction. ICE certified stocks were down 12,541 bags yesterday to 686,863, their lowest level since May 2, 2024, but this has not supported the market as it had been doing. The shock of the 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports has sent US buyers looking for coffee anywhere they could (including ICE stocks), but it has also left newly harvested Brazilian coffee looking for a home. There was some speculation that any sort of resolution to the tariff impasse would induce heavy selling by growers. So far, no resolution has been even hinted at. World Weather Service says Brazil’s weather has fallen back into a typical early-September pattern of restricted rain and warm temperatures and that this pattern will likely last through the next ten days. Recent rainfall in area of Minas Gerais may have induced some flowering, and more rain will be needed later this month to support pollination. Reuters reports that coffee trading in Vietnam has been tepid this week, with sales slowing as stocks dwindle at the end of the crop year.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
