Global Ag News For Sept 4.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Germany’s 2025 grains crop up sharply despite late summer rain, farm ministry says

Germany’s winter wheat harvest will rise by 26.3% this year to 22.45 million metric tons despite late summer rain falling on crops just before they were gathered, the German agriculture ministry said on Wednesday.

Germany’s total 2025 grains crop of all types is forecast to rise 14.8% on the year to some 44.73 million metric tons, it said in its harvest report.

Despite repeated summer rain and other unfavourable weather this year, the harvest will still be above last year’s crop and quality will be generally satisfactory, the report said.

“The 2025 harvest delivered good volumes and stable quality despite all adversities,” the ministry said.

The winter rapeseed crop rose by about 9.4% on the year to around 3.96 million tons, it said.

Germany is the European Union’s second-largest wheat producer after France and one of the EU’s largest producers of rapeseed, Europe’s main oilseed for edible oil and biodiesel production.

The forecast follows other optimistic forecasts of Germany’s crop, including from the country’s farming association.

Late summer rain falling on ripe wheat is a serious threat to crop quality. But analysis so far shows Germany’s winter wheat harvest reached an average protein content of 12%, up from 11.6% last year, the ministry said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 in SRW, down 4 1/4 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil down 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 in SRW, down 12 3/4 in HRW, down 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 26 1/4; Soymeal down $7.20; Soyoil down 0.39.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 1/4 in SRW, down 13 3/4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 26 3/4; Soymeal down $7.20; Soyoil down 0.35.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.6% in SRW, down 13.3% in HRW, down 7.1% in HRS; Corn is down 13.5%; Soybeans up 1.8%; Soymeal down 10.3%; Soyoil up 28.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 25) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal up 6; Soyoil down 20; Palm oil down 34; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 7.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 7 ringgit (+0.16%) at 4449.

There were changes in registrations (-3 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 176 Oats; 0 Corn; 587 Soybeans; 707 Soyoil; 475 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 3 were: SRW Wheat up 15,672 contracts, HRW Wheat up 9,377, Corn up 2,233, Soybeans down 764, Soymeal up 9,981, Soyoil up 9,066.

 

Northern Plains: A strong front moved through on Tuesday with a significant drop in temperature. Another strong front will move through on Thursday with another round of cold air that could mean some frosts heading into the weekend. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields.

Central/Southern Plains: A front will slip through the region Wednesday and Thursday with a stronger one Friday into the weekend. Scattered showers will be possible with both fronts, but temperatures will take another dip, especially behind the second front. A system will likely develop in the region along the stalled front again Sunday or Monday with more showers moving through. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be.

Midwest: A pair of fronts will move through this week, which will bring a couple of rounds of showers. Most of the crop could still use a drink, but it’s starting to get a little late except for those that had to plant late or replant because of wet conditions this spring. Temperatures behind the fronts will again drop down well below normal and some areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin might see a frost over the next several mornings. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

Delta: Isolated showers continue to be in the region on Wednesday that could be a little heavy in some small areas. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest.

Europe: An upper-level system continues to bring waves of showers through much of the continent this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins later this month.

Black Sea: Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins later this month.

 

The player sheet for 9/3 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: Exporters sold 185,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean meal to the Philippines for 2025/2026 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 125,000 metric tons of soft wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 29 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.067m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.442m bbl vs 22.549m a week ago

 

Brazil soy area expansion seen as limited in 2025/26, says Rabobank

Brazil’s soybean planted area is expected to grow by just 1.5% in the 2025/26 season, Rabobank said in a report on Wednesday, calling the expansion “limited” and noting it lags the historical average of 3.5%.

Despite the modest increase in planted area, Brazil could still harvest a record 175 million tonnes of soybeans, assuming average productivity trends hold, Rabobank said.

Brazil’s soybean output in 2024/25 reached 169.7 million tonnes, according to government crop agency Conab.

 

Canadian PM says he will take part in bid to resolve China canola dispute

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Wednesday said he and other senior officials would work to resolve a dispute with China over tariffs that Beijing has imposed on canola.

China hit Canadian canola seed imports with preliminary 75.8% duties last month following an anti-dumping investigation, escalating a year-long trade dispute. China is by far Canada’s biggest canola seed market.

“We’re going to work hard to get that right … the minister of international trade has been engaged, our foreign minister is engaged, I will be engaged to work to find a solution for our agricultural relationship,” Carney told reporters in Toronto.

Canada, the world’s largest exporter of canola, shipped almost C$5 billion ($3.63 billion) of canola products to China in 2024, about 80% of which was seed. The steep duties on canola seed, if they remain in place, would likely all but end those Chinese imports.

 

Rains in southern, eastern Ukraine prepare the ground for winter sowing

Rainfall in Ukraine’s central, southern and eastern regions in late August has created satisfactory conditions for the start of winter sowing after a period of drought, agricultural meteorologists said on Thursday.

Ukraine has begun sowing winter rapeseed and is about to start sowing winter wheat, which is crucial for the country and accounts for about 95% of the total area under this crop.

“Precipitation ended a prolonged dry spell which lasted from 23 to 84 days… contributed to the replenishment of moisture in the upper soil layers in most areas, and created satisfactory conditions for soil preparation,” forecasters said in a report.

Ukrainian farmers have started a mass winter sowing campaign and had sowed 377,100 hectares of winter rapeseed as of September 1, or 33.8% of the forecast area, the economy ministry said this week.

Winter rapeseed dominates Ukraine’s rapeseed area and state weather forecasters last month said the drought may have a negative impact on sowing.

 

Israel, Moldova Sign MoU on Joint Wheat Cultivation

Israel and Moldova sign MoU on joint wheat cultivation for routine and emergency use, Israel’s Agriculture Ministry says.

• Israel will provide know-how and seeds, while Moldova supplies land, water, and workers
• Agreement is part of a broad plan to strengthen food security of Israel
• To date, Israel has signed similar agreements with Romania, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Morocco

 

USDA September Estimates of 2025 Farm Income

Following is a table detailing the USDA’s projections of US farm sector financial indicators.

• Net farm income est. for 2025 revised down $0.3b to $179.8b
• Income from crops is revised down by $3b from the Feb. est.
• Income from livestock revised up by $23.2b

 

Trade Stalls as Brazil Awaits Tender Results

Urea buyers in Brazil have largely been on the sidelines awaiting the Indian tender results, though there was talk of a new transaction at $455 a metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight, within last week’s $440-$470/mt range. Granular ammonium sulfate in Brazil slipped to $175-$180/mt, $10 below last week’s high, while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices were reported at $710-$730/mt, also reflecting a $10 drop from last week’s peak. Potash prices in Brazil were unchanged at $345-$355/mt, with the market at a standstill amid limited buyer interest.

 

US corn maintains a strong presence in Asia and Central America for 2025/26

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

The US corn exports for 2024/25 were estimated at 72.75 million tons, marking the highest volume on record. The leading five destinations comprised 76.1% of total US corn exports: Mexico (32.7%), Japan (19.7%), Colombia (10.9%), South Korea (9.2%), and Taiwan (3.6%). Additionally, exports to Europe and North Africa have risen from 1.3 to 5.9 million tons, attributed to a shortage of feed grain supplies in the EU and Black Sea regions.

Looking forward, new US trade agreements may impact US agricultural exports in 2025/26, including corn exports to key markets in Asia and Central America. The leading buyers—Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and Taiwan—continue to show strong buying interests, as well as Central American countries such as Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Honduras. Vietnam, which traditionally imports most of its corn from South America, imported 1.3 million tons of US corn in 2024/25, compared to none in 2023/24, and has purchased an additional 277.5 thousand tons of US corn for 2025/26.  US total corn outstanding sales for 2025/26 reached 18.78 million tons as of August 21, up from 9.42 million tons for 2024/25. Based on strong demand and ample supply, US corn exports for 2025/26 are projected at 75.95 million tons.

In South America, Brazil and Argentina have significantly increased their corn exports to Africa and the Middle East over the past year, while shipments to Asian and Central American markets have declined. Moving forward, South American corn is expected to encounter strong competition from the US in these markets. We estimate 2024/25 Brazil and Argentina corn exports at 38 million tons and 33.9 million tons, respectively. For 2025/26, assuming normal production conditions and outputs, Brazil’s exports are forecast at 40 million tons and Argentina’s at 36.5 million tons.

Due to tight supply, Ukraine corn exports declined sharply in August, with only 239 thousand tons reported. Total exports for 2024/25 (Oct/Sept) remain unchanged at 20.5 million tons while exports for 2025/26 are projected at 22.81 million tons.

 

Australia wheat production outlook strengthens following beneficial rainfall

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 AUSTRALIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 32.3 [28.0-35.5] MILLION TONS, UP 7.3% FROM LAST UDPATE

Australia’s 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at 32.3 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous update. The upward revision follows widespread July – August rainfall that boosted soil moisture and improved crop prospects. Satellite imagery shows vegetation densities near or above the long-term median across New South Wales, Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland, pointing to generally favorable crop conditions heading into spring.

Short-term weather forecasts continue to support a positive outlook, with moderate rainfall expected across wheat-growing areas over the next two weeks. Temperature patterns will vary by region: Western Australia and Queensland are expected to experience near-normal temperatures, Victoria is likely to see normal to above-normal temperatures, while South Australia and New South Wales may experience a mix of above-normal followed by below-normal temperatures. Looking further ahead, LSEG’s long-term weather outlook for September through November projects near-normal temperatures and rainfall across key wheat-producing regions, supporting ongoing crop demand.

 

 

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