Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Increase Russia attacks on Ukraine could increase chances for more sanctions against Russia. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry with above normal temps. S Brazil and NE Argentina rains, elsewhere dry.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.33. Weekly US exports were 452 mt. New marketing year. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. Trade est US 24/25 soybean carryout at 328 mil bu vs USDA 330. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 288 mil bu vs USDA 290. Trade est US crop at 4,271 mil bu vs USDA August 4,292. USDA rated US crop 64 pct G/E, down 1 from last week. IL 54 vs 53 lw, AR 61 vs 65, OH 46 vs 54, IA 76 vs 77, MN 75 vs 75 and NE 76 vs 74. China August soybean imports were record 12.25 mmt and 4th straight month with record monthly import. Season to date imports 96.5 and on pace to reach USDA 106.5 goal. China bought April soybeans from Brazil. Argentina Milei lost control of government to socialist which dropped Peso sharply. This made Argentina export prices cheaper but stopped farmer selling.
CORN
CZ is near 4.21 on good exports and drop in US crop rating. Weekly US exports were 1,443 mt. New marketing year. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. Trade est US 24/25 corn carryout at 1,311 mil bu vs USDA 1,305. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,011 mil bu vs USDA 2,117. Trade est US crop at 16,516 mil bu vs USDA August 16,742. USDA rated US crop 68 pct G/E, down 1 from last week. IL 53 vs 55 lw, OH 46 vs 56, IA 80 vs 84, MN 73 vs 73 and NE 76 vs 76.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.23. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.16. MWZ is near 5.74. US wheat exports were 425 Season to date exports 248.5 mt vs 273.5 ly. Next key input is 2026 south hemisphere crops and Russia exports and export price. Trade est US 25/26 wheat carryout at 865 mil bu vs USDA August 869. Trade est World 25/26 wheat end stocks at 261.1 mmt vs 260.1 in August. USDA est 5 pct of US winter wheat crop was planted.
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